Football · England Southern Premier League South · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Chertsey Town vs Basingstoke

Team pages: Chertsey Town · Basingstoke

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.41Total

Chertsey Town2.13

Basingstoke1.28

1X2

56% 23% 22%

Chertsey Town Draw Basingstoke

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Chertsey Town 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

DWLLWDLDDW

Basingstoke 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDDLWLLW

Head-to-head

Chertsey Town 4–1 Basingstoke (5 last)

Chertsey Town4-2Basingstoke
Basingstoke2-1Chertsey Town
Basingstoke1-3Chertsey Town
Chertsey Town3-0Basingstoke
Chertsey Town4-1Basingstoke

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Chertsey Town 1540 · Basingstoke 1474

	Chertsey Town	Draw	Basingstoke
Our model	56%	22%	22%
Market	56%	23%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.41 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chertsey Town (rating 1540 vs 1474).
H2H favours Chertsey Town: 4-0-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 10 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Chertsey Town	Basingstoke
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.7	1.6 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0 / 2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 6.5	2.7 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	6 / 0.5	4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X3.90

24.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.82

2 (+0.75)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
22:18 +19’	1.61	3.90	4.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Chertsey Town 4–0–1 Basingstoke

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 England Southern Premier League South	Chertsey Town	4-2 HT 1-0	Basingstoke
14/10/25 England Southern Premier League South	Basingstoke	2-1 HT 1-0	Chertsey Town
08/03/25 England Southern Premier League South	Basingstoke	1-3	Chertsey Town
12/11/24 England Southern Premier League South	Chertsey Town	3-0 HT 2-0	Basingstoke
27/04/22 England Isthmian Division One South	Chertsey Town	4-1 HT 1-0	Basingstoke

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uxbridge	12	9	2	1	25	8	29
2	Poole Town	13	9	1	3	24	15	28
3	Hanworth Villa	14	8	3	3	27	16	27
4	Plymouth Parkway	13	8	2	3	27	14	26
5	Bath City	13	8	2	3	19	10	26
6	Chichester City	14	7	1	6	24	23	22
7	Gosport Borough	14	6	3	5	22	18	21
8	Chertsey Town	13	5	5	3	27	20	20
9	Wimborne Town	12	5	4	3	20	9	19
10	Taunton Town	12	6	1	5	32	25	19
11	Frome Town	13	5	4	4	20	16	19
12	Berkhamsted	13	5	2	6	16	18	17
13	Basingstoke	14	4	3	7	21	27	15
14	Hanwell Town	12	3	5	4	16	15	14
15	Yate Town	13	3	5	5	16	25	14
16	Bracknell Town	14	4	2	8	14	30	14
17	Sholing	12	3	4	5	14	18	13
18	Evesham United	13	4	1	8	15	26	13
19	Malvern Town	13	3	2	8	19	34	11
20	Gloucester	11	2	4	5	15	19	10
21	Havant and W	14	2	3	9	19	32	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	2	3	7	11	25	9

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Chertsey Town

DWLLWDLDDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
20/10	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-0	6	4	W
13/10	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	1-1	4	6	D
10/10	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
29/09	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
22/09	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	0-1	2-2	7	3	D
12/09	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	–	5-0	–	–	W
31/08	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/08	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	0-1	1-2	9	13	L
22/08	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	4-2	–	–	W
15/08	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D

Basingstoke

DLWDDLWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
17/10	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	0-3	0-4	5	6	L
13/10	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	0-2	1-4	6	3	L
10/10	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	–	4-1	–	–	W
29/09	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	0-1	1-2	3	3	L
19/09	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
12/09	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
31/08	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/08	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-4	–	–	L
22/08	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Chertsey Town vs Basingstoke?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Chertsey Town win (56%). Probabilities: Chertsey Town 56%, draw 23%, Basingstoke 22%.

How many goals are expected in Chertsey Town vs Basingstoke?

The model expects 3.41 goals (Chertsey Town 2.13 · Basingstoke 1.28), with a 55% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Chertsey Town vs Basingstoke?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.