Football · England Southern Premier League South · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Frome Town vs Chichester City

Team pages: Frome Town · Chichester City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.07Total

Frome Town1.73

Chichester City1.34

1X2

46% 25% 29%

Frome Town Draw Chichester City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Frome Town 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Chichester City 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWLDLWWLWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Frome Town 1489 · Chichester City 1543

	Frome Town	Draw	Chichester City
Our model	46%	26%	29%
Market	46%	25%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.07 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Chichester City (rating 1489 vs 1543).
High corners: 11.4 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 8.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Frome Town	Chichester City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 1.5	1.8 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.9 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/33/0%	43/14/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.7	2.3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	5.3 / 0.7	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.60

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
22:25 +11’	1.95	3.60	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uxbridge	12	9	2	1	25	8	29
2	Poole Town	13	9	1	3	24	15	28
3	Hanworth Villa	14	8	3	3	27	16	27
4	Plymouth Parkway	13	8	2	3	27	14	26
5	Bath City	13	8	2	3	19	10	26
6	Chichester City	14	7	1	6	24	23	22
7	Gosport Borough	14	6	3	5	22	18	21
8	Chertsey Town	13	5	5	3	27	20	20
9	Wimborne Town	12	5	4	3	20	9	19
10	Taunton Town	12	6	1	5	32	25	19
11	Frome Town	13	5	4	4	20	16	19
12	Berkhamsted	13	5	2	6	16	18	17
13	Basingstoke	14	4	3	7	21	27	15
14	Hanwell Town	12	3	5	4	16	15	14
15	Yate Town	13	3	5	5	16	25	14
16	Bracknell Town	14	4	2	8	14	30	14
17	Sholing	12	3	4	5	14	18	13
18	Evesham United	13	4	1	8	15	26	13
19	Malvern Town	13	3	2	8	19	34	11
20	Gloucester	11	2	4	5	15	19	10
21	Havant and W	14	2	3	9	19	32	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	2	3	7	11	25	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Frome Town	Chichester City
Sholing	1-1 D	3-2 W
Plymouth Parkway	0-2 L	3-1 W
Hanwell Town	2-2 D	2-0 W
Chertsey Town	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 1 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Chichester City (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Frome Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Malvern Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
13/10	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	2-0	6	1	W
10/10	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-3	–	–	D
30/09	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
22/09	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
31/08	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-1	4	13	W
22/08	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L

Chichester City

WWLDLWWLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	1-1	1-2	9	1	L
20/10	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	2-0	3-1	5	4	W
17/10	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/10	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	0-1	3-2	6	4	W
10/10	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
29/09	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	0-2	1-2	7	3	L
22/09	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-2	3	3	D
12/09	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	0-2	0-5	4	1	L
31/08	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	3-2	–	–	W
29/08	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	2-0	2-0	6	5	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Frome Town vs Chichester City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Frome Town win (46%). Probabilities: Frome Town 46%, draw 25%, Chichester City 29%.

How many goals are expected in Frome Town vs Chichester City?

The model expects 3.07 goals (Frome Town 1.73 · Chichester City 1.34), with a 50% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Frome Town vs Chichester City?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.