Football · England Southern Premier League South · 13/10, 20:45

Prediction: Malvern Town vs Yate Town

Team pages: Malvern Town · Yate Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.29Total

Malvern Town1.68

Yate Town1.61

1X2

39% 25% 36%

Malvern Town Draw Yate Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 58% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Malvern Town 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Yate Town 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WDDWLLWLDL

Head-to-head

Malvern Town 1–0 Yate Town (1 last)

Yate Town2-3Malvern Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Malvern Town 1418 · Yate Town 1487

	Malvern Town	Draw	Yate Town
Our model	39%	25%	36%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 3.29 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Yate Town (rating 1418 vs 1487).

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Malvern Town	Yate Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.4 / 2.9	1.3 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	– / –
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/67/33%	//%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.7 / 8.3	– / –
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.3 / 0.3	– / –

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.80

2 (0)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.50 → 2.50	Bet365 2.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
15:09 +4’	2.30	3.60	2.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Malvern Town 1–0–0 Yate Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
16/08/23 England Southern League Division One	Yate Town	2-3 HT 0-3	Malvern Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Poole Town	11	8	0	3	18	12	24
2	Uxbridge	10	7	2	1	20	8	23
3	Plymouth Parkway	10	6	2	2	24	11	20
4	Hanworth Villa	10	6	1	3	18	11	19
5	Bath City	10	5	2	3	14	10	17
6	Frome Town	11	4	4	3	18	14	16
7	Chichester City	10	5	1	4	17	17	16
8	Berkhamsted	11	5	1	5	14	14	16
9	Wimborne Town	9	4	3	2	16	7	15
10	Chertsey Town	10	4	3	3	22	17	15
11	Gosport Borough	11	4	3	4	15	14	15
12	Taunton Town	10	4	1	5	24	24	13
13	Evesham United	10	4	1	5	14	18	13
14	Basingstoke	10	3	3	4	18	17	12
15	Yate Town	10	3	3	4	13	21	12
16	Sholing	9	3	2	4	10	13	11
17	Bracknell Town	10	3	2	5	11	19	11
18	Hanwell Town	9	2	4	3	9	11	10
19	Gloucester	10	2	4	4	15	18	10
20	Chippenham Town	9	2	2	5	9	18	8
21	Havant and W	10	1	2	7	12	22	5
22	Malvern Town	10	1	2	7	14	29	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Malvern Town	Yate Town
Chertsey Town	0-5 L	1-1 D
Chippenham Town	1-2 L	1-1 D
Gosport Borough	2-4 L	1-0 W
Wimborne Town	0-3 L	0-4 L
Bracknell Town	0-0 D	2-1 W
Taunton Town	2-5 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 5 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Yate Town (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Malvern Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/09	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
22/09	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	0-1	5-2	7	3	W
12/09	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-5	–	–	L
31/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-4	7	1	L
22/08	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-0	–	–	D
11/08	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-5	11	1	L
08/08	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D

Yate Town

WDDWLLWLDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	–	0-3	–	–	L
03/10	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-3	–	–	D
29/09	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-4	–	–	L
12/09	Hanworth Villa England Southern Premier League South	–	3-2	–	–	W
31/08	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/08	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
22/08	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Malvern Town vs Yate Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Malvern Town win (39%). Probabilities: Malvern Town 39%, draw 25%, Yate Town 36%.

How many goals are expected in Malvern Town vs Yate Town?

The model expects 3.29 goals (Malvern Town 1.68 · Yate Town 1.61), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Malvern Town vs Yate Town?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.