Football · England Southern Premier League South · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Havant and W vs Hanworth Villa

Team pages: Havant and W · Hanworth Villa

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Havant and W1.59

Hanworth Villa1.85

1X2

32% 25% 43%

Havant and W Draw Hanworth Villa

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Havant and W 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

LWLDLLLDLW

Hanworth Villa 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

WLWDWLWWLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Havant and W 1430 · Hanworth Villa 1569

	Havant and W	Draw	Hanworth Villa
Our model	33%	24%	43%
Market	32%	26%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Hanworth Villa (rating 1430 vs 1569).
Cards-heavy: 9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Havant and W	Hanworth Villa
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.1	2 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.3	1.7 / 0
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	100/0/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.3	2.3 / 3.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	5 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.50

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.85

2 (-0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.7 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
11:14 +5’	2.80	3.50	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Poole Town	11	8	0	3	18	12	24
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	7	2	2	26	12	23
3	Uxbridge	10	7	2	1	20	8	23
4	Hanworth Villa	11	7	1	3	22	12	22
5	Bath City	11	6	2	3	16	10	20
6	Frome Town	12	5	4	3	20	14	19
7	Chichester City	11	6	1	4	20	19	19
8	Chertsey Town	11	4	4	3	23	18	16
9	Berkhamsted	11	5	1	5	14	14	16
10	Wimborne Town	10	4	3	3	17	9	15
11	Gosport Borough	11	4	3	4	15	14	15
12	Taunton Town	10	4	1	5	24	24	13
13	Evesham United	11	4	1	6	14	20	13
14	Basingstoke	11	3	3	5	19	21	12
15	Yate Town	11	3	3	5	15	24	12
16	Hanwell Town	10	2	5	3	10	12	11
17	Sholing	10	3	2	5	12	16	11
18	Bracknell Town	11	3	2	6	12	23	11
19	Gloucester	10	2	4	4	15	18	10
20	Havant and W	11	2	2	7	16	23	8
21	Chippenham Town	10	2	2	6	9	20	8
22	Malvern Town	11	2	2	7	17	31	8

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Havant and W	Hanworth Villa
Wimborne Town	3-6 L	0-0 D
Bracknell Town	1-2 L	4-1 W
Chichester City	2-3 L	2-1 W
Gloucester	3-3 D	1-3 L
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Hanworth Villa (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Havant and W

LWLDLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	2-0	4-1	2	3	W
10/10	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-6	–	–	L
29/09	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
19/09	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
12/09	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	0-1	5	4	L
31/08	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	–	2-3	–	–	L
29/08	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	–	3-3	–	–	D
22/08	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
11/08	Uxbridge England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L

Hanworth Villa

WLWDWLWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	1-0	4-1	2	8	W
10/10	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
29/09	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
22/09	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
12/09	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-3	–	–	L
31/08	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	4-1	–	–	W
29/08	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-0	–	–	D
22/08	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	4-1	–	–	W
15/08	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/08	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Havant and W vs Hanworth Villa?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Hanworth Villa win (43%). Probabilities: Havant and W 32%, draw 25%, Hanworth Villa 43%.

How many goals are expected in Havant and W vs Hanworth Villa?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Havant and W 1.59 · Hanworth Villa 1.85), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Havant and W vs Hanworth Villa?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.