Football · England Southern Premier League South · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Malvern Town vs Frome Town

Team pages: Malvern Town · Frome Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.39Total

Malvern Town1.44

Frome Town1.95

1X2

28% 24% 48%

Malvern Town Draw Frome Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Malvern Town 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

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Frome Town 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Malvern Town 0–1 Frome Town (1 last)

Frome Town4-0Malvern Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Malvern Town 1443 · Frome Town 1547

	Malvern Town	Draw	Frome Town
Our model	28%	24%	49%
Market	28%	24%	48%

Estimated total (ours) 3.39 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Frome Town (rating 1443 vs 1547).
High corners: 14 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Malvern Town	Frome Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.9	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 1	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/67/33%	67/33/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.7 / 8.3	3 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.3 / 0.3	5.3 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.75

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.90

2 (-0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:15 +4’	3.25	3.75	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Malvern Town 0–0–1 Frome Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/02/24 England Southern League Division One	Frome Town	4-0 HT 2-0	Malvern Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Poole Town	11	8	0	3	18	12	24
2	Plymouth Parkway	11	7	2	2	26	12	23
3	Uxbridge	10	7	2	1	20	8	23
4	Hanworth Villa	11	7	1	3	22	12	22
5	Bath City	11	6	2	3	16	10	20
6	Frome Town	12	5	4	3	20	14	19
7	Chichester City	11	6	1	4	20	19	19
8	Chertsey Town	11	4	4	3	23	18	16
9	Berkhamsted	11	5	1	5	14	14	16
10	Wimborne Town	10	4	3	3	17	9	15
11	Gosport Borough	11	4	3	4	15	14	15
12	Taunton Town	10	4	1	5	24	24	13
13	Evesham United	11	4	1	6	14	20	13
14	Basingstoke	11	3	3	5	19	21	12
15	Yate Town	11	3	3	5	15	24	12
16	Hanwell Town	10	2	5	3	10	12	11
17	Sholing	10	3	2	5	12	16	11
18	Bracknell Town	11	3	2	6	12	23	11
19	Gloucester	10	2	4	4	15	18	10
20	Havant and W	11	2	2	7	16	23	8
21	Chippenham Town	10	2	2	6	9	20	8
22	Malvern Town	11	2	2	7	17	31	8

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Malvern Town	Frome Town
Yate Town	3-2 W	3-3 D
Bath City	1-2 L	1-0 W
Chertsey Town	0-5 L	2-1 W
Chippenham Town	1-2 L	2-0 W
Gosport Borough	2-4 L	1-2 L
Taunton Town	2-5 L	2-2 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 5 L	3 W 2 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Frome Town (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Malvern Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-2	–	–	W
10/10	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	1-4	–	–	L
29/09	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
22/09	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	0-1	5-2	7	3	W
12/09	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-5	–	–	L
31/08	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/08	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-4	7	1	L
22/08	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-3	–	–	L
15/08	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-0	–	–	D
11/08	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-5	11	1	L

Frome Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	0-0	2-0	6	1	W
10/10	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	1-1	–	–	D
03/10	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	3-3	–	–	D
30/09	Taunton Town England Southern Premier League South	2-1	2-2	7	4	D
22/09	Plymouth Parkway England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
12/09	Hanwell Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
31/08	Bath City England Southern Premier League South	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/08	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	1-0	2-1	4	13	W
22/08	Gosport Borough England Southern Premier League South	–	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Malvern Town vs Frome Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Frome Town win (48%). Probabilities: Malvern Town 28%, draw 24%, Frome Town 48%.

How many goals are expected in Malvern Town vs Frome Town?

The model expects 3.39 goals (Malvern Town 1.44 · Frome Town 1.95), with a 54% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Malvern Town vs Frome Town?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.