Football · England Southern Premier League South · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Hanworth Villa vs Plymouth Parkway

Team pages: Hanworth Villa · Plymouth Parkway

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.14Total

Hanworth Villa1.67

Plymouth Parkway1.47

1X2

42% 25% 33%

Hanworth Villa Draw Plymouth Parkway

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Hanworth Villa 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

DWLWWLWDDW

Plymouth Parkway 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWDLWLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Hanworth Villa 1536 · Plymouth Parkway 1556

	Hanworth Villa	Draw	Plymouth Parkway
Our model	41%	26%	33%
Market	42%	25%	33%

Estimated total (ours) 3.14 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Hanworth Villa	Plymouth Parkway
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.4	1.7 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.4	0.7 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	60/20/20%	33/67/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.2	3 / 4.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.2 / 0	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.15

X3.60

22.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.98

2 (+0.25)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 22:36

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.15 → 2.15	Bet365 2.15
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.70 → 2.70	Bet365 2.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
22:20 +15’	2.15	3.60	2.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Southern Premier League South

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Uxbridge	12	9	2	1	25	8	29
2	Poole Town	13	9	1	3	24	15	28
3	Hanworth Villa	14	8	3	3	27	16	27
4	Plymouth Parkway	13	8	2	3	27	14	26
5	Bath City	13	8	2	3	19	10	26
6	Chichester City	14	7	1	6	24	23	22
7	Gosport Borough	14	6	3	5	22	18	21
8	Chertsey Town	13	5	5	3	27	20	20
9	Wimborne Town	12	5	4	3	20	9	19
10	Taunton Town	12	6	1	5	32	25	19
11	Frome Town	13	5	4	4	20	16	19
12	Berkhamsted	13	5	2	6	16	18	17
13	Basingstoke	14	4	3	7	21	27	15
14	Hanwell Town	12	3	5	4	16	15	14
15	Yate Town	13	3	5	5	16	25	14
16	Bracknell Town	14	4	2	8	14	30	14
17	Sholing	12	3	4	5	14	18	13
18	Evesham United	13	4	1	8	15	26	13
19	Malvern Town	13	3	2	8	19	34	11
20	Gloucester	11	2	4	5	15	19	10
21	Havant and W	14	2	3	9	19	32	9
22	Chippenham Town	12	2	3	7	11	25	9

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Hanworth Villa	Plymouth Parkway
Chichester City	2-1 W	1-3 L
Havant and W	2-2 D	2-1 W
Gloucester	1-3 L	1-0 W
Wimborne Town	0-0 D	2-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Plymouth Parkway (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Hanworth Villa

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-1	3	1	W
20/10	Chippenham Town England Southern Premier League South	0-1	1-1	8	5	D
17/10	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	2-2	–	–	D
13/10	Bracknell Town England Southern Premier League South	1-0	4-1	2	8	W
10/10	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
29/09	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	2-0	2-1	3	3	W
22/09	Berkhamsted England Southern Premier League South	2-0	2-1	5	4	W
12/09	Yate Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-3	–	–	L
31/08	Chertsey Town England Southern Premier League South	–	4-1	–	–	W
29/08	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	–	0-0	–	–	D

Plymouth Parkway

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	0-0	1-0	7	4	W
24/10	Basingstoke England Southern Premier League South	–	0-2	–	–	L
13/10	Wimborne Town England Southern Premier League South	1-1	2-1	6	2	W
10/10	Chichester City England Southern Premier League South	–	1-3	–	–	L
29/09	Gloucester England Southern Premier League South	1-0	1-1	1	3	D
22/09	Frome Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
12/09	Sholing England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/08	Poole Town England Southern Premier League South	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	Evesham United England Southern Premier League South	–	3-1	–	–	W
22/08	Havant and W England Southern Premier League South	–	2-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Hanworth Villa vs Plymouth Parkway?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Hanworth Villa win (42%). Probabilities: Hanworth Villa 42%, draw 25%, Plymouth Parkway 33%.

How many goals are expected in Hanworth Villa vs Plymouth Parkway?

The model expects 3.14 goals (Hanworth Villa 1.67 · Plymouth Parkway 1.47), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Hanworth Villa vs Plymouth Parkway?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.