Football · England Isthmian Premier Division · 17/10, 16:00

Prediction: Wingate & Finchley vs Stanway Rovers

Team pages: Wingate & Finchley · Stanway Rovers

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.4Total

Wingate & Finchley1.99

Stanway Rovers1.42

1X2

50% 24% 26%

Wingate & Finchley Draw Stanway Rovers

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Wingate & Finchley 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Stanway Rovers 1-0-9 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Wingate & Finchley 1540 · Stanway Rovers 1383

	Wingate & Finchley	Draw	Stanway Rovers
Our model	50%	24%	27%
Market	50%	24%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.4 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Wingate & Finchley (rating 1540 vs 1383).
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Wingate & Finchley	Stanway Rovers
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.9	0.8 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	1.3 / 1.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.6	3.3 / 6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.4	2 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.70

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:41

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
16:38 +3’	1.80	3.70	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Isthmian Premier Division

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Enfield Town	11	9	0	2	30	13	27
2	Lewes	12	8	1	3	19	13	25
3	Welling	11	8	0	3	20	10	24
4	Dartford	11	8	0	3	18	12	24
5	Carshalton Ath	13	7	0	6	19	22	21
6	Ramsgate	12	6	1	5	27	17	19
7	Eastbourne Borough	10	6	1	3	19	11	19
8	Burgess Hill Town	10	4	5	1	18	11	17
9	St Albans	9	5	2	2	18	13	17
10	Dulwich	10	5	1	4	18	14	16
11	Chatham Town	9	5	0	4	19	13	15
12	Leatherhead	10	4	3	3	18	17	15
13	Cheshunt	11	3	5	3	11	14	14
14	Wingate & Finchley	10	4	2	4	16	20	14
15	Cray Wanderers	9	3	3	3	19	14	12
16	Aveley	11	3	2	6	18	19	11
17	Brentwood Town	10	3	0	7	15	19	9
18	AFC Whyteleafe	11	2	3	6	13	21	9
19	Maldon Tiptree FC	12	3	0	9	15	33	9
20	Three Bridges	11	2	2	7	20	31	8
21	Whitehawk	11	1	2	8	11	26	5
22	Stanway Rovers	10	1	1	8	8	26	4

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Wingate & Finchley	Stanway Rovers
Ramsgate	2-0 W	1-3 L
Aveley	4-3 W	0-2 L
Welling	1-4 L	0-4 L
Enfield Town	1-4 L	1-2 L
AFC Whyteleafe	2-2 D	0-4 L
Carshalton Ath	0-2 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Wingate & Finchley (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

League

Wingate & Finchley

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
13/10	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	0-0	2-0	2	3	W
10/10	Dartford England Isthmian Premier Division	0-1	1-2	9	6	L
26/09	Real Bedford England FA Trophy	–	3-0	–	–	W
14/09	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	2-1	4-3	1	6	W
12/09	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-4	2	2	L
31/08	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-2	1-4	4	1	L
29/08	Chatham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/08	Dulwich England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-0	–	–	W
15/08	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	–	2-2	–	–	D
10/08	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L

Stanway Rovers

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Three Bridges England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-3	–	–	L
06/10	Enfield Town England Isthmian Premier Division	1-1	1-2	8	3	L
26/09	Faversham Town England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
15/09	Brentwood Town England Isthmian Premier Division	3-1	3-2	4	2	W
12/09	AFC Whyteleafe England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-4	–	–	L
31/08	Aveley England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-2	–	–	L
29/08	St Albans England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-4	–	–	L
22/08	Carshalton Ath England Isthmian Premier Division	–	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Welling England Isthmian Premier Division	–	0-4	–	–	L
11/08	Ramsgate England Isthmian Premier Division	0-2	1-3	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Wingate & Finchley vs Stanway Rovers?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Wingate & Finchley win (50%). Probabilities: Wingate & Finchley 50%, draw 24%, Stanway Rovers 26%.

How many goals are expected in Wingate & Finchley vs Stanway Rovers?

The model expects 3.4 goals (Wingate & Finchley 1.99 · Stanway Rovers 1.42), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Wingate & Finchley vs Stanway Rovers?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.