Football · England Northern Premier League · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Avro FC vs Warrington Town

Team pages: Avro FC · Warrington Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.58Total

Avro FC2.11

Warrington Town1.47

1X2

51% 23% 26%

Avro FC Draw Warrington Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Avro FC 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WWWWLLLWLD

Warrington Town 3-4-3 (W-D-L)

LDWLDDWDLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Avro FC 1526 · Warrington Town 1496

	Avro FC	Draw	Warrington Town
Our model	51%	23%	26%
Market	51%	23%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 3.58 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Avro FC	Warrington Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.2 / 2	1.3 / 1.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 0.8	0.6 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/50/13%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 4	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.75

X3.90

23.50

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.80

2 (+0.5)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.98

Under 3.251.82

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:19

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.75 → 1.75	Bet365 1.75
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
12:09 +10’	1.75	3.90	3.50

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	16	10	5	1	35	15	35
2	Cleethorpes Town	15	10	3	2	32	9	33
3	Guiseley	15	10	2	3	33	15	32
4	Curzon Ashton	16	10	1	5	30	18	31
5	Gainsborough	16	9	2	5	32	21	29
6	Avro FC	16	9	2	5	39	30	29
7	Workington	16	8	3	5	28	26	27
8	Warrington Rylands	15	8	2	5	27	22	26
9	Warrington Town	16	7	5	4	28	24	26
10	Bury	14	7	2	5	30	18	23
11	Alfreton Town	16	7	2	7	23	18	23
12	Lancaster City	17	6	3	8	20	29	21
13	Emley AFC	17	5	5	7	19	28	20
14	Whitby	16	6	1	9	22	42	19
15	Quorn	15	4	6	5	27	32	18
16	Stockton Town	16	4	3	9	23	28	15
17	Hyde Utd	16	4	3	9	15	30	15
18	Ashton Utd	16	3	5	8	18	21	14
19	Leek Town	16	3	5	8	31	37	14
20	Ilkeston	16	4	1	11	11	34	13
21	FC United of Manchester	16	2	6	8	20	27	12
22	Bamber Bridge	16	2	5	9	18	37	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Avro FC	Warrington Town
Ashton Utd	3-2 W	1-0 W
Lancaster City	5-3 W	2-2 D
Gainsborough	2-0 W	1-2 L
FC United of Manchester	4-3 W	1-4 L
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Avro FC (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Avro FC

WWWWLLLWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Bury England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-2	1	4	D
31/10	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
21/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	3-0	3-2	2	2	W
17/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
13/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-3	2	3	L
10/10	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
07/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	2-2	5-3	4	1	W
12/09	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
31/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	1-1	4-3	8	2	W
29/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	3-1	5-3	6	2	W

Warrington Town

LDWLDDWDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	6	3	W
24/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	1-2	1-2	9	0	L
17/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-1	1	3	D
13/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	1	4	W
10/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-2	5	1	D
06/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-2	3	3	D
12/09	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-4	2	5	L
01/09	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
29/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
25/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-4	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Avro FC vs Warrington Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Avro FC win (51%). Probabilities: Avro FC 51%, draw 23%, Warrington Town 26%.

How many goals are expected in Avro FC vs Warrington Town?

The model expects 3.58 goals (Avro FC 2.11 · Warrington Town 1.47), with a 51% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Avro FC vs Warrington Town?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.