Football · England Northern Premier League · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Bamber Bridge vs Bury

Team pages: Bamber Bridge · Bury

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.84Total

Bamber Bridge1.29

Bury2.55

1X2

17% 19% 64%

Bamber Bridge Draw Bury

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-2 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Bamber Bridge 1-3-6 (W-D-L)

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Bury 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bamber Bridge 1407 · Bury 1530

	Bamber Bridge	Draw	Bury
Our model	17%	19%	64%
Market	17%	19%	64%

Estimated total (ours) 3.84 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 74%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bury (rating 1407 vs 1530).
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bamber Bridge	Bury
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.2	2.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.9	1.6 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/63/38%	50/25/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5	3.3 / 7.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.6 / 0.4	3.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

15.25

X4.75

21.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1.25)2.00

2 (-1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.85

Under 3.51.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:09 +7’	5.25	4.75	1.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	16	10	5	1	35	15	35
2	Cleethorpes Town	15	10	3	2	32	9	33
3	Guiseley	15	10	2	3	33	15	32
4	Curzon Ashton	16	10	1	5	30	18	31
5	Gainsborough	16	9	2	5	32	21	29
6	Avro FC	16	9	2	5	39	30	29
7	Workington	16	8	3	5	28	26	27
8	Warrington Rylands	15	8	2	5	27	22	26
9	Warrington Town	16	7	5	4	28	24	26
10	Bury	14	7	2	5	30	18	23
11	Alfreton Town	16	7	2	7	23	18	23
12	Lancaster City	17	6	3	8	20	29	21
13	Emley AFC	17	5	5	7	19	28	20
14	Whitby	16	6	1	9	22	42	19
15	Quorn	15	4	6	5	27	32	18
16	Stockton Town	16	4	3	9	23	28	15
17	Hyde Utd	16	4	3	9	15	30	15
18	Ashton Utd	16	3	5	8	18	21	14
19	Leek Town	16	3	5	8	31	37	14
20	Ilkeston	16	4	1	11	11	34	13
21	FC United of Manchester	16	2	6	8	20	27	12
22	Bamber Bridge	16	2	5	9	18	37	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bamber Bridge	Bury
Emley AFC	0-2 L	4-0 W
Gainsborough	1-1 D	1-0 W
Workington	1-2 L	1-2 L
Stockton Town	2-5 L	0-1 L
Alfreton Town	1-0 W	3-2 W
Hyde Utd	4-4 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Bury (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bamber Bridge

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	2	2	L
31/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
17/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-2	7	1	L
13/10	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	8	4	L
10/10	Whitby England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
03/10	Quorn England Northern Premier League	0-2	2-4	1	1	L
19/09	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-5	–	–	L
12/09	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
31/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-3	2	7	L
29/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	2-2	4-4	6	6	D

Bury

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-2	7	4	D
31/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-2	4	4	L
27/10	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	3-0	5-3	7	5	W
10/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
06/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	3-0	4-0	7	1	W
31/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
29/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	4-0	7-0	10	3	W
25/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	10	3	L
22/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bamber Bridge vs Bury?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Bury win (64%). Probabilities: Bamber Bridge 17%, draw 19%, Bury 64%.

How many goals are expected in Bamber Bridge vs Bury?

The model expects 3.84 goals (Bamber Bridge 1.29 · Bury 2.55), with a 52% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bamber Bridge vs Bury?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-2.