Football · England Northern Premier League · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Emley AFC vs Whitby

Team pages: Emley AFC · Whitby

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.75Total

Emley AFC2.16

Whitby1.59

1X2

50% 23% 27%

Emley AFC Draw Whitby

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Emley AFC 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

LLLLLDWWLW

Whitby 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLWLLDWWLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Emley AFC 1441 · Whitby 1433

	Emley AFC	Draw	Whitby
Our model	50%	22%	28%
Market	50%	23%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.75 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.8

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Emley AFC	Whitby
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 2.1	1.8 / 2.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.2 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	38/25/38%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.4 / 3.4	0.8 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.1	2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.90

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.82

2 (+0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.88

Under 31.93

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90
2	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
11:09 +7’	1.80	3.90	3.30

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · England Northern Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	16	10	5	1	35	15	35
2	Cleethorpes Town	15	10	3	2	32	9	33
3	Guiseley	15	10	2	3	33	15	32
4	Curzon Ashton	16	10	1	5	30	18	31
5	Gainsborough	16	9	2	5	32	21	29
6	Avro FC	16	9	2	5	39	30	29
7	Workington	16	8	3	5	28	26	27
8	Warrington Rylands	15	8	2	5	27	22	26
9	Warrington Town	16	7	5	4	28	24	26
10	Bury	14	7	2	5	30	18	23
11	Alfreton Town	16	7	2	7	23	18	23
12	Lancaster City	17	6	3	8	20	29	21
13	Emley AFC	17	5	5	7	19	28	20
14	Whitby	16	6	1	9	22	42	19
15	Quorn	15	4	6	5	27	32	18
16	Stockton Town	16	4	3	9	23	28	15
17	Hyde Utd	16	4	3	9	15	30	15
18	Ashton Utd	16	3	5	8	18	21	14
19	Leek Town	16	3	5	8	31	37	14
20	Ilkeston	16	4	1	11	11	34	13
21	FC United of Manchester	16	2	6	8	20	27	12
22	Bamber Bridge	16	2	5	9	18	37	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Emley AFC	Whitby
Bamber Bridge	2-0 W	0-0 D
Alfreton Town	1-2 L	1-4 L
Lancaster City	1-0 W	1-2 L
Stockton Town	3-1 W	0-5 L
FC United of Manchester	1-1 D	2-4 L
Gainsborough	1-2 L	2-6 L
Workington	1-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Emley AFC (6 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Emley AFC

LLLLLDWWLW

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	1	2	W
31/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-2	2	7	L
24/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
17/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	3-1	–	–	W
13/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	0	D
10/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-4	4	2	L
29/09	Workington England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-3	6	4	L
12/09	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-3	0-4	3	1	L
31/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-2	0-4	4	5	L

Whitby

WLWLLDWWLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-5	–	–	L
24/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-2	2-4	2	2	L
17/10	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
13/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
10/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
06/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-3	2-6	3	0	L
29/09	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
12/09	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	3-1	2	1	W
31/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-4	1	4	L
29/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	–	6-3	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Emley AFC vs Whitby?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Emley AFC win (50%). Probabilities: Emley AFC 50%, draw 23%, Whitby 27%.

How many goals are expected in Emley AFC vs Whitby?

The model expects 3.75 goals (Emley AFC 2.16 · Whitby 1.59), with a 57% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Emley AFC vs Whitby?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.