Football · England Northern Premier League · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Lancaster City vs Cleethorpes Town

Team pages: Lancaster City · Cleethorpes Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.71Total

Lancaster City1.14

Cleethorpes Town1.57

1X2

27% 26% 46%

Lancaster City Draw Cleethorpes Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Lancaster City 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLWWLDWLLD

Cleethorpes Town 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

WLWWDDWWLW

Head-to-head

Lancaster City 0–2–1 Cleethorpes Town (3 last)

Cleethorpes Town5-1Lancaster City
Lancaster City0-0Cleethorpes Town
Cleethorpes Town2-2Lancaster City

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lancaster City 1459 · Cleethorpes Town 1543

	Lancaster City	Draw	Cleethorpes Town
Our model	27%	27%	46%
Market	28%	26%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.71 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 54%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cleethorpes Town (rating 1459 vs 1543).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 4.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lancaster City	Cleethorpes Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.7	1.9 / 0.7
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.9	0.6 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/57/29%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 6	2.1 / 4.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	1.7 / 0	2.9 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.25

X3.50

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.7

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:20

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
13:14 +5’	3.25	3.50	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lancaster City 0–2–1 Cleethorpes Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
26/09/26 England FA Trophy	Cleethorpes Town	5-1 HT 1-1	Lancaster City
21/03/26 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	0-0	Cleethorpes Town
08/11/25 England Northern Premier League	Cleethorpes Town	2-2	Lancaster City

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	16	10	5	1	35	15	35
2	Cleethorpes Town	15	10	3	2	32	9	33
3	Guiseley	15	10	2	3	33	15	32
4	Curzon Ashton	16	10	1	5	30	18	31
5	Gainsborough	16	9	2	5	32	21	29
6	Avro FC	16	9	2	5	39	30	29
7	Workington	16	8	3	5	28	26	27
8	Warrington Rylands	15	8	2	5	27	22	26
9	Warrington Town	16	7	5	4	28	24	26
10	Bury	14	7	2	5	30	18	23
11	Alfreton Town	16	7	2	7	23	18	23
12	Lancaster City	17	6	3	8	20	29	21
13	Emley AFC	17	5	5	7	19	28	20
14	Whitby	16	6	1	9	22	42	19
15	Quorn	15	4	6	5	27	32	18
16	Stockton Town	16	4	3	9	23	28	15
17	Hyde Utd	16	4	3	9	15	30	15
18	Ashton Utd	16	3	5	8	18	21	14
19	Leek Town	16	3	5	8	31	37	14
20	Ilkeston	16	4	1	11	11	34	13
21	FC United of Manchester	16	2	6	8	20	27	12
22	Bamber Bridge	16	2	5	9	18	37	11

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lancaster City	Cleethorpes Town
Avro FC	3-5 L	1-0 W
Whitby	2-1 W	6-0 W
Curzon Ashton	0-2 L	1-3 L
Workington	0-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Cleethorpes Town (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lancaster City

LLWWLDWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	–	0-0	–	–	D
24/10	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	2	L
17/10	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-2	1-2	7	2	L
13/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	7	2	W
10/10	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-2	3	1	D
07/10	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	2-2	3-5	3	1	L
03/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/09	Whitby England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	4	W
12/09	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	8	0	L
31/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L

Cleethorpes Town

WLWWDDWWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
20/10	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-2	3	4	L
10/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	7	6	W
06/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	2	W
03/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-1	2	5	D
22/09	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	7	2	D
12/09	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	2	W
31/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-0	3-0	3	2	W
28/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-3	6	2	L
25/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	3-0	6-0	6	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lancaster City vs Cleethorpes Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Cleethorpes Town win (46%). Probabilities: Lancaster City 27%, draw 26%, Cleethorpes Town 46%.

How many goals are expected in Lancaster City vs Cleethorpes Town?

The model expects 2.71 goals (Lancaster City 1.14 · Cleethorpes Town 1.57), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lancaster City vs Cleethorpes Town?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.