Football · England Northern Premier League · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Leek Town vs Ilkeston

Team pages: Leek Town · Ilkeston

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.63Total

Leek Town2.04

Ilkeston1.59

1X2

47% 24% 29%

Leek Town Draw Ilkeston

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

1-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Leek Town 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

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Ilkeston 2-0-8 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Leek Town 4–2 Ilkeston (6 last)

Ilkeston1-3Leek Town
Leek Town1-2Ilkeston
Ilkeston0-2Leek Town
Leek Town1-3Ilkeston
Ilkeston2-3Leek Town
Leek Town2-1Ilkeston

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leek Town 1497 · Ilkeston 1399

	Leek Town	Draw	Ilkeston
Our model	47%	23%	29%
Market	47%	24%	29%

Estimated total (ours) 3.63 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 71%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leek Town (rating 1497 vs 1399).
H2H favours Leek Town: 4-0-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leek Town	Ilkeston
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2.6	0.6 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.3	0.2 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/22/44%	0/60/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 3.3	0.8 / 3.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.1	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.70

23.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 3.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 10:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.7%

Time*	1	X	2
10:12 +2’	1.91	3.70	3.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leek Town 4–0–2 Ilkeston

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Date	Home	Score	Away
31/01/26 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	1-3 HT 0-2	Leek Town
20/09/25 England Northern Premier League	Leek Town	1-2 HT 0-1	Ilkeston
04/01/25 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	0-2	Leek Town
21/09/24 England Northern Premier League	Leek Town	1-3 HT 1-1	Ilkeston
03/11/20 England Northern League Division One	Ilkeston	2-3 HT 1-0	Leek Town
10/09/19 England Northern League Division One	Leek Town	2-1 HT 0-1	Ilkeston

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	16	10	5	1	35	15	35
2	Cleethorpes Town	15	10	3	2	32	9	33
3	Guiseley	15	10	2	3	33	15	32
4	Curzon Ashton	16	10	1	5	30	18	31
5	Gainsborough	16	9	2	5	32	21	29
6	Avro FC	16	9	2	5	39	30	29
7	Workington	16	8	3	5	28	26	27
8	Warrington Rylands	15	8	2	5	27	22	26
9	Warrington Town	16	7	5	4	28	24	26
10	Bury	14	7	2	5	30	18	23
11	Alfreton Town	16	7	2	7	23	18	23
12	Lancaster City	17	6	3	8	20	29	21
13	Emley AFC	17	5	5	7	19	28	20
14	Whitby	16	6	1	9	22	42	19
15	Quorn	15	4	6	5	27	32	18
16	Stockton Town	16	4	3	9	23	28	15
17	Hyde Utd	16	4	3	9	15	30	15
18	Ashton Utd	16	3	5	8	18	21	14
19	Leek Town	16	3	5	8	31	37	14
20	Ilkeston	16	4	1	11	11	34	13
21	FC United of Manchester	16	2	6	8	20	27	12
22	Bamber Bridge	16	2	5	9	18	37	11

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leek Town	Ilkeston
Guiseley	1-4 L	0-2 L
Bury	3-5 L	0-7 L
Lancaster City	2-1 W	1-2 L
Warrington Rylands	3-3 D	0-1 L
Hyde Utd	2-1 W	1-0 W
Redcar Athletic	2-3 L	0-5 L
Workington	2-3 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 4 L	1 W 0 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Leek Town (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leek Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-4	4	0	L
31/10	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-2	4	3	L
27/10	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-3	3-5	2	5	L
17/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-1	3	2	W
10/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	3-1	3-3	4	2	D
22/09	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
12/09	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-3	0	5	L
01/09	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
29/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-3	3	2	L

Ilkeston

LLLLLLLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
17/10	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
13/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-3	6	1	L
10/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	0-5	–	–	L
06/10	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
03/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/09	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
12/09	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	1-3	–	–	L
31/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
29/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-4	0-7	0	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leek Town vs Ilkeston?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leek Town win (47%). Probabilities: Leek Town 47%, draw 24%, Ilkeston 29%.

How many goals are expected in Leek Town vs Ilkeston?

The model expects 3.63 goals (Leek Town 2.04 · Ilkeston 1.59), with a 56% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Leek Town vs Ilkeston?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.