Football · England Northern Premier League · 07/11, 16:00

Prediction: Stockton Town vs Curzon Ashton

Team pages: Stockton Town · Curzon Ashton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Stockton Town1.41

Curzon Ashton1.83

1X2

29% 24% 47%

Stockton Town Draw Curzon Ashton

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Stockton Town 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LLDWLWDLLW

Curzon Ashton 8-0-2 (W-D-L)

WWWWWLLWWW

Head-to-head

Stockton Town 0–1 Curzon Ashton (1 last)

Curzon Ashton4-0Stockton Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stockton Town 1462 · Curzon Ashton 1594

	Stockton Town	Draw	Curzon Ashton
Our model	29%	25%	47%
Market	29%	24%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Curzon Ashton (rating 1462 vs 1594).
Cards-heavy: 5.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stockton Town	Curzon Ashton
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 1.8	1.9 / 0.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 1.3	1.1 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/50/50%	67/22/11%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 5.3	2.2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.3	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.10

X3.75

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.85

Under 31.95

Diff.: 0.25 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:16

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.10 → 3.10	Bet365 3.10
X	3.75 → 3.75	Bet365 3.75
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
11:09 +7’	3.10	3.75	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Stockton Town 0–0–1 Curzon Ashton

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/09/21 England FA Cup Qualification	Curzon Ashton	4-0 HT 4-0	Stockton Town

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	16	10	5	1	35	15	35
2	Cleethorpes Town	15	10	3	2	32	9	33
3	Guiseley	15	10	2	3	33	15	32
4	Curzon Ashton	16	10	1	5	30	18	31
5	Gainsborough	16	9	2	5	32	21	29
6	Avro FC	16	9	2	5	39	30	29
7	Workington	16	8	3	5	28	26	27
8	Warrington Rylands	15	8	2	5	27	22	26
9	Warrington Town	16	7	5	4	28	24	26
10	Bury	14	7	2	5	30	18	23
11	Alfreton Town	16	7	2	7	23	18	23
12	Lancaster City	17	6	3	8	20	29	21
13	Emley AFC	17	5	5	7	19	28	20
14	Whitby	16	6	1	9	22	42	19
15	Quorn	15	4	6	5	27	32	18
16	Stockton Town	16	4	3	9	23	28	15
17	Hyde Utd	16	4	3	9	15	30	15
18	Ashton Utd	16	3	5	8	18	21	14
19	Leek Town	16	3	5	8	31	37	14
20	Ilkeston	16	4	1	11	11	34	13
21	FC United of Manchester	16	2	6	8	20	27	12
22	Bamber Bridge	16	2	5	9	18	37	11

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stockton Town	Curzon Ashton
Whitby	5-0 W	0-1 L
Lancaster City	0-1 L	2-0 W
FC United of Manchester	2-2 D	1-0 W
Hyde Utd	1-2 L	2-0 W
Warrington Rylands	1-1 D	1-5 L
Redcar Athletic	0-2 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 3 L	4 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Curzon Ashton (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stockton Town

LLDWLWDLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/10	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	5-0	–	–	W
17/10	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	–	1-3	–	–	L
13/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	2	L
10/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/10	Bury England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
19/09	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	–	5-2	–	–	W
12/09	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
31/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
29/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	1-3	3-5	2	2	L

Curzon Ashton

WWWWWLLWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/11	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	5	3	W
31/10	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-1	9	3	W
27/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
17/10	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-5	3	3	L
10/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
06/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	3-0	3-1	2	2	W
12/09	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	3	0	W
31/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-0	5	5	W
28/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-1	1	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stockton Town vs Curzon Ashton?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Curzon Ashton win (47%). Probabilities: Stockton Town 29%, draw 24%, Curzon Ashton 47%.

How many goals are expected in Stockton Town vs Curzon Ashton?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Stockton Town 1.41 · Curzon Ashton 1.83), with a 52% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Stockton Town vs Curzon Ashton?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.