Football · England Northern Premier League · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Alfreton Town vs Emley AFC

Team pages: Alfreton Town · Emley AFC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.88Total

Alfreton Town1.81

Emley AFC1.07

1X2

54% 24% 22%

Alfreton Town Draw Emley AFC

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Alfreton Town 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

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Emley AFC 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Alfreton Town 1–0 Emley AFC (1 last)

Alfreton Town1-0Emley AFC

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alfreton Town 1511 · Emley AFC 1439

	Alfreton Town	Draw	Emley AFC
Our model	53%	25%	21%
Market	55%	22%	23%

Estimated total (ours) 2.88 goals · Bet365 line 3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Alfreton Town (rating 1511 vs 1439).
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alfreton Town	Emley AFC
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1.1	1 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.2	0.5 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	44/44/11%	38/25/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.3	2.4 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.2	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.61

X4.00

23.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.93

Under 31.88

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:11

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.61 → 1.61	Bet365 1.61
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	3.90 → 3.90	Bet365 3.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:08 +3’	1.61	4.00	3.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alfreton Town 1–0–0 Emley AFC

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Date	Home	Score	Away
30/09/23 England FA Cup Qualification	Alfreton Town	1-0 HT 0-0	Emley AFC

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	15	10	4	1	33	13	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	9	3	2	31	9	30
3	Guiseley	13	9	1	3	27	12	28
4	Gainsborough	15	9	1	5	31	20	28
5	Avro FC	14	9	1	4	37	27	28
6	Curzon Ashton	14	8	1	5	27	17	25
7	Workington	15	7	3	5	26	25	24
8	Warrington Rylands	14	7	2	5	25	21	23
8	Warrington Town	14	6	5	3	25	21	23
10	Bury	12	7	1	4	27	14	22
11	Alfreton Town	15	6	2	7	21	17	20
12	Lancaster City	16	6	2	8	20	29	20
13	Whitby	15	6	1	8	22	37	19
14	Emley AFC	15	4	5	6	16	26	17
15	Quorn	14	3	6	5	24	30	15
16	Hyde Utd	15	4	3	8	15	29	15
17	Ashton Utd	14	3	5	6	17	18	14
18	Leek Town	14	3	5	6	29	31	14
19	Stockton Town	15	3	3	9	18	28	12
20	FC United of Manchester	14	2	5	7	20	26	11
21	Bamber Bridge	14	2	4	8	17	34	10
22	Ilkeston	15	3	1	11	10	34	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alfreton Town	Emley AFC
Warrington Town	1-1 D	2-2 D
Bury	2-3 L	0-4 L
FC United of Manchester	1-0 W	1-1 D
Redcar Athletic	1-3 L	0-0 D
Guiseley	1-0 W	0-4 L
Warrington Rylands	1-2 L	1-4 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 3 L	0 W 3 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Alfreton Town (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alfreton Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-1	4	3	D
13/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	5	4	D
10/10	Bury England Northern Premier League	1-2	2-3	4	5	L
06/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	1	W
03/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	1-3	–	–	L
29/09	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
12/09	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
31/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-1	6	4	W
29/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-2	5	6	L
25/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-0	2	5	W

Emley AFC

DDLLLLLDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
24/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	2	W
17/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	3-1	–	–	W
13/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	0	D
10/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-4	4	2	L
29/09	Workington England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-3	6	4	L
12/09	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-3	0-4	3	1	L
31/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-2	0-4	4	5	L
29/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	10	3	D
25/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	2	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alfreton Town vs Emley AFC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alfreton Town win (54%). Probabilities: Alfreton Town 54%, draw 24%, Emley AFC 22%.

How many goals are expected in Alfreton Town vs Emley AFC?

The model expects 2.88 goals (Alfreton Town 1.81 · Emley AFC 1.07), with a 54% chance of under 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Alfreton Town vs Emley AFC?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.