Football · England Northern Premier League · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Bury vs Workington

Team pages: Bury · Workington

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.89Total

Bury2.58

Workington1.31

1X2

64% 19% 17%

Bury Draw Workington

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Bury 6-0-4 (W-D-L)

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Workington 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Bury 1–0 Workington (1 last)

Bury5-1Workington

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bury 1555 · Workington 1545

	Bury	Draw	Workington
Our model	64%	19%	17%
Market	64%	19%	17%

Estimated total (ours) 3.89 goals · Bet365 line 3.5 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

High corners: 10.5 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bury	Workington
Goals for / against (FT)	2.4 / 1.2	2.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	2.2 / 0.5	0.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	67/17/17%	17/33/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.7 / 7.7	0.8 / 2.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.40

X4.75

25.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.5)2.00

2 (+1.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.51.82

Under 3.51.98

Diff.: 0.1 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.40 → 1.40	Bet365 1.40
X	4.75 → 4.75	Bet365 4.75
2	5.25 → 5.25	Bet365 5.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:05 +5’	1.40	4.75	5.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Bury 1–0–0 Workington

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Date	Home	Score	Away
19/09/26 England FA Cup Qualification	Bury	5-1 HT 2-1	Workington

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	15	10	4	1	33	13	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	9	3	2	31	9	30
3	Guiseley	13	9	1	3	27	12	28
4	Gainsborough	15	9	1	5	31	20	28
5	Avro FC	14	9	1	4	37	27	28
6	Curzon Ashton	14	8	1	5	27	17	25
7	Workington	15	7	3	5	26	25	24
8	Warrington Rylands	14	7	2	5	25	21	23
8	Warrington Town	14	6	5	3	25	21	23
10	Bury	12	7	1	4	27	14	22
11	Alfreton Town	15	6	2	7	21	17	20
12	Lancaster City	16	6	2	8	20	29	20
13	Whitby	15	6	1	8	22	37	19
14	Emley AFC	15	4	5	6	16	26	17
15	Quorn	14	3	6	5	24	30	15
16	Hyde Utd	15	4	3	8	15	29	15
17	Ashton Utd	14	3	5	6	17	18	14
18	Leek Town	14	3	5	6	29	31	14
19	Stockton Town	15	3	3	9	18	28	12
20	FC United of Manchester	14	2	5	7	20	26	11
21	Bamber Bridge	14	2	4	8	17	34	10
22	Ilkeston	15	3	1	11	10	34	10

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bury	Workington
Leek Town	5-3 W	3-2 W
Emley AFC	4-0 W	3-1 W
Ilkeston	7-0 W	3-1 W
Lancaster City	0-1 L	3-0 W
Warrington Rylands	1-0 W	3-2 W
Record vs common	4 W 0 D 1 L	5 W 0 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Bury (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bury

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	3-0	5-3	7	5	W
10/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	2-1	3-2	5	5	W
06/10	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
12/09	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	3-0	4-0	7	1	W
31/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	7	3	L
29/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	4-0	7-0	10	3	W
25/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	10	3	L
22/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
18/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	2-3	–	–	L
15/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W

Workington

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
17/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-1	4	1	W
13/10	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
10/10	Quorn England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-3	3	6	L
06/10	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-2	2-2	1	3	D
03/10	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-1	0	5	D
29/09	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-1	3-1	3	4	W
12/09	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
29/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-2	6	2	W
25/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	–	3-2	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bury vs Workington?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bury win (64%). Probabilities: Bury 64%, draw 19%, Workington 17%.

How many goals are expected in Bury vs Workington?

The model expects 3.89 goals (Bury 2.58 · Workington 1.31), with a 53% chance of over 3.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Bury vs Workington?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.