Football · England Northern Premier League · 31/10, 16:00

Prediction: Curzon Ashton vs Leek Town

Team pages: Curzon Ashton · Leek Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.9Total

Curzon Ashton2.4

Leek Town1.5

1X2

56% 21% 22%

Curzon Ashton Draw Leek Town

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Curzon Ashton 7-0-3 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWLLW

Leek Town 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Curzon Ashton 1558 · Leek Town 1530

	Curzon Ashton	Draw	Leek Town
Our model	57%	21%	23%
Market	56%	22%	22%

Estimated total (ours) 3.9 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.6

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 75%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Curzon Ashton	Leek Town
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1	2.5 / 2.5
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	1.3 / 1.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	63/25/13%	38/25/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.5 / 3.3	1.6 / 3.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0	3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.60

X4.10

24.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)2.00

2 (+1)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 3.251.93

Under 3.251.88

Diff.: 0.8 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:10

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10
2	4.10 → 4.10	Bet365 4.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:01 +9’	1.60	4.10	4.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	15	10	4	1	33	13	34
2	Cleethorpes Town	14	9	3	2	31	9	30
3	Guiseley	13	9	1	3	27	12	28
4	Gainsborough	15	9	1	5	31	20	28
5	Avro FC	14	9	1	4	37	27	28
6	Curzon Ashton	14	8	1	5	27	17	25
7	Workington	15	7	3	5	26	25	24
8	Warrington Rylands	14	7	2	5	25	21	23
8	Warrington Town	14	6	5	3	25	21	23
10	Bury	12	7	1	4	27	14	22
11	Alfreton Town	15	6	2	7	21	17	20
12	Lancaster City	16	6	2	8	20	29	20
13	Whitby	15	6	1	8	22	37	19
14	Emley AFC	15	4	5	6	16	26	17
15	Quorn	14	3	6	5	24	30	15
16	Hyde Utd	15	4	3	8	15	29	15
17	Ashton Utd	14	3	5	6	17	18	14
18	Leek Town	14	3	5	6	29	31	14
19	Stockton Town	15	3	3	9	18	28	12
20	FC United of Manchester	14	2	5	7	20	26	11
21	Bamber Bridge	14	2	4	8	17	34	10
22	Ilkeston	15	3	1	11	10	34	10

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Curzon Ashton	Leek Town
Warrington Rylands	1-5 L	3-3 D
Hyde Utd	2-0 W	2-1 W
Redcar Athletic	3-1 W	2-3 L
Lancaster City	2-0 W	2-1 W
Ashton Utd	2-0 W	2-2 D
Warrington Town	4-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 1 L	2 W 2 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Curzon Ashton (5 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Curzon Ashton

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	4	2	W
17/10	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
13/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-5	3	3	L
10/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
06/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	3-0	3-1	2	2	W
12/09	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	3	0	W
31/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-0	5	5	W
28/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-1	1	2	W
25/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	4-0	2	3	W
22/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L

Leek Town

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Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
27/10	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-3	3-5	2	5	L
17/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-1	3	2	W
10/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	3-1	3-3	4	2	D
22/09	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
12/09	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-3	0	5	L
01/09	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
29/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-3	3	2	L
26/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	2-2	4-4	3	0	D
22/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Curzon Ashton vs Leek Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Curzon Ashton win (56%). Probabilities: Curzon Ashton 56%, draw 21%, Leek Town 22%.

How many goals are expected in Curzon Ashton vs Leek Town?

The model expects 3.9 goals (Curzon Ashton 2.4 · Leek Town 1.5), with a 55% chance of over 3.25 goals.

Will both teams score in Curzon Ashton vs Leek Town?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.