Football · England Northern Premier League · 06/10, 20:45

Prediction: Alfreton Town vs FC United of Manchester

Team pages: Alfreton Town · FC United of Manchester

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Alfreton Town1.77

FC United of Manchester1.33

1X2

47% 25% 28%

Alfreton Town Draw FC United of Manchester

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Alfreton Town 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

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FC United of Manchester 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

Alfreton Town 2–1–3 FC United of Manchester (6 last)

Alfreton Town2-3FC United of Manchester
FC United of Manchester1-1Alfreton Town
Alfreton Town1-0FC United of Manchester
FC United of Manchester3-2Alfreton Town
Alfreton Town2-1FC United of Manchester
FC United of Manchester4-3Alfreton Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Alfreton Town 1501 · FC United of Manchester 1486

	Alfreton Town	Draw	FC United of Manchester
Our model	47%	25%	28%
Market	47%	25%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours FC United of Manchester: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Alfreton Town	FC United of Manchester
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.2	1.4 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 0.3	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	57/29/14%	43/43/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.4 / 4.3	2.4 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4.7 / 0.3	2.6 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

11.91

X3.60

23.20

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.98

2 (+0.5)1.82

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 17:37

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.20 → 3.20	Bet365 3.20

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.4%

Time*	1	X	2
17:34 +3’	1.91	3.60	3.20

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Alfreton Town 2–1–3 FC United of Manchester

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/04/19 England National League North	Alfreton Town	2-3 HT 2-2	FC United of Manchester
30/10/18 England National League North	FC United of Manchester	1-1 HT 1-0	Alfreton Town
21/04/18 England National League North	Alfreton Town	1-0 HT 1-0	FC United of Manchester
14/11/17 England National League North	FC United of Manchester	3-2 HT 0-2	Alfreton Town
18/03/17 England National League North	Alfreton Town	2-1 HT 1-0	FC United of Manchester
08/10/16 England National League North	FC United of Manchester	4-3 HT 3-1	Alfreton Town

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	11	7	4	0	22	8	25
2	Cleethorpes Town	11	7	3	1	26	7	24
3	Avro FC	9	7	1	1	28	16	22
4	Workington	11	6	2	3	21	17	20
5	Guiseley	10	6	1	3	22	11	19
6	Warrington Rylands	11	6	1	4	17	14	19
7	Warrington Town	9	5	2	2	18	14	17
8	Bury	9	5	1	3	19	8	16
9	Curzon Ashton	9	5	1	3	18	10	16
10	Lancaster City	11	5	1	5	13	19	16
11	Alfreton Town	11	5	0	6	17	13	15
12	Hyde Utd	11	4	2	5	13	20	14
13	Gainsborough	9	4	1	4	14	12	13
14	Whitby	10	4	0	6	15	26	12
15	Ashton Utd	9	3	2	4	10	9	11
16	Emley AFC	11	2	4	5	10	22	10
17	Leek Town	10	2	3	5	19	20	9
18	Quorn	10	2	3	5	16	25	9
19	Bamber Bridge	11	2	3	6	16	31	9
20	Stockton Town	11	2	2	7	14	22	8
21	Ilkeston	11	2	1	8	7	24	7
22	FC United of Manchester	9	1	2	6	12	19	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Alfreton Town	FC United of Manchester
Redcar Athletic	1-3 L	2-3 L
Bamber Bridge	0-1 L	1-1 D
Warrington Rylands	1-2 L	0-3 L
Hyde Utd	4-0 W	0-1 L
Avro FC	3-0 W	3-4 L
Gainsborough	2-1 W	0-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 0 D 3 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Alfreton Town (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Alfreton Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	1-3	–	–	L
29/09	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
12/09	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
31/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-1	6	4	W
29/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-2	5	6	L
25/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-0	2	5	W
22/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	7	L
18/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
15/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
11/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W

FC United of Manchester

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	4-1	5	5	W
31/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	1-1	3-4	4	2	L
29/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	2-3	–	–	L
25/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
22/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-2	6	1	L
18/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
15/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
11/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
28/04	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-3	6	2	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Alfreton Town vs FC United of Manchester?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Alfreton Town win (47%). Probabilities: Alfreton Town 47%, draw 25%, FC United of Manchester 28%.

How many goals are expected in Alfreton Town vs FC United of Manchester?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Alfreton Town 1.77 · FC United of Manchester 1.33), with a 53% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Alfreton Town vs FC United of Manchester?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.