Football · England Northern Premier League · 13/10, 20:45

Prediction: Gainsborough vs Ilkeston

Team pages: Gainsborough · Ilkeston

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Gainsborough2.21

Ilkeston1.06

1X2

62% 22% 16%

Gainsborough Draw Ilkeston

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

2-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Gainsborough 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LWWLDWLLWW

Ilkeston 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLDLLLLLLL

Head-to-head

Gainsborough 1–3–2 Ilkeston (6 last)

Gainsborough0-0Ilkeston
Ilkeston0-1Gainsborough
Gainsborough0-0Ilkeston
Ilkeston2-2Gainsborough
Gainsborough0-1Ilkeston
Ilkeston4-0Gainsborough

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Gainsborough 1546 · Ilkeston 1362

	Gainsborough	Draw	Ilkeston
Our model	63%	21%	16%
Market	62%	22%	16%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gainsborough (rating 1546 vs 1362).
H2H favours Ilkeston: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Gainsborough	Ilkeston
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.5	0.4 / 2.8
Goals for / against (HT)	1.2 / 0.2	0 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/60/0%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.6	0.4 / 2.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.44

X4.00

25.75

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1.25)2.00

2 (+1.25)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 23:14

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.57 → 1.44▼	Bet365 1.44
X	3.80 → 4.00▲	Bet365 4.00
2	4.50 → 5.75▲	Bet365 5.75

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.6%

Time*	1	X	2
12:53 +11’	1.57	3.80	4.50
23:09 +6’	1.44▼	4.00▲	5.75▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Gainsborough 1–3–2 Ilkeston

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Date	Home	Score	Away
20/12/25 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	0-0 HT 0-0	Ilkeston
12/08/25 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	0-1	Gainsborough
04/03/25 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	0-0 HT 0-0	Ilkeston
10/08/24 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	2-2	Gainsborough
09/12/23 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	0-1 HT 0-1	Ilkeston
15/08/23 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	4-0 HT 1-0	Gainsborough

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	13	9	3	1	30	7	30
2	Redcar Athletic	13	8	4	1	28	11	28
3	Guiseley	12	8	1	3	25	11	25
4	Avro FC	11	8	1	2	33	20	25
5	Curzon Ashton	11	7	1	3	23	11	22
6	Workington	13	6	3	4	23	22	21
7	Warrington Rylands	13	6	2	5	20	20	20
8	Bury	11	6	1	4	22	11	19
9	Gainsborough	11	6	1	4	22	15	19
10	Warrington Town	11	5	4	2	22	18	19
11	Alfreton Town	13	6	0	7	20	16	18
12	Lancaster City	13	5	2	6	18	26	17
13	Hyde Utd	13	4	2	7	13	23	14
14	Ashton Utd	11	3	4	4	14	13	13
15	Quorn	12	3	4	5	21	27	13
16	Whitby	12	4	1	7	17	32	13
17	Stockton Town	13	3	3	7	17	24	12
18	Leek Town	12	2	5	5	24	25	11
19	Emley AFC	12	2	4	6	11	24	10
20	Bamber Bridge	12	2	4	6	16	31	10
21	Ilkeston	13	2	1	10	7	31	7
22	FC United of Manchester	11	1	3	7	14	22	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Gainsborough	Ilkeston
Cleethorpes Town	0-3 L	0-3 L
Ashton Utd	2-1 W	1-1 D
Quorn	2-2 D	0-2 L
Bury	0-1 L	0-7 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Gainsborough (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Gainsborough

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
06/10	Whitby England Northern Premier League	3-0	6-2	10	0	W
12/09	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
31/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-3	3	2	L
28/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-1	0	6	W
25/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	7	0	D
22/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
15/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
11/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L

Ilkeston

LLDLLLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	0-5	–	–	L
06/10	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
03/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/09	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
12/09	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	1-3	–	–	L
31/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
29/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-4	0-7	0	3	L
25/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
22/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
18/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Gainsborough vs Ilkeston?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Gainsborough win (62%). Probabilities: Gainsborough 62%, draw 22%, Ilkeston 16%.

How many goals are expected in Gainsborough vs Ilkeston?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Gainsborough 2.21 · Ilkeston 1.06), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Gainsborough vs Ilkeston?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.