Football · England Northern Premier League · 13/10, 20:45

Prediction: Workington vs Whitby

Team pages: Workington · Whitby

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.87Total

Workington2.4

Whitby1.47

1X2

57% 22% 21%

Workington Draw Whitby

Markets

Over 3.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 60%

Most likely score

2-1 9%

Recent form · 10 last

Workington 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LWWWWWWDDL

Whitby 3-1-6 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLWLLD

Head-to-head

Workington 2–3–1 Whitby (6 last)

Whitby0-0Workington
Workington1-2Whitby
Whitby1-3Workington
Workington3-1Whitby
Workington0-0Whitby
Whitby1-1Workington

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Workington 1548 · Whitby 1421

	Workington	Draw	Whitby
Our model	57%	21%	22%
Market	56%	24%	21%

Estimated total (ours) 3.87 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +1.1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Workington (rating 1548 vs 1421).
H2H favours Workington: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Workington	Whitby
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 1.7	1.5 / 2.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.7	0.2 / 1.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/33/50%	0/33/67%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.5	1 / 2.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.3 / 0.2	2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.60

X3.80

24.33

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)1.80

2 (+0.75)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 1.35 · xG: 4.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.60 → 1.60	Bet365 1.60
X	3.80 → 3.80	Bet365 3.80
2	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:53 +11’	1.60	3.80	4.33

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Workington 2–3–1 Whitby

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Date	Home	Score	Away
10/01/26 England Northern Premier League	Whitby	0-0	Workington
09/08/25 England Northern Premier League	Workington	1-2 HT 1-0	Whitby
25/01/25 England Northern Premier League	Whitby	1-3	Workington
21/09/24 England Northern Premier League	Workington	3-1	Whitby
27/01/24 England Northern Premier League	Workington	0-0 HT 0-0	Whitby
25/11/23 England Northern Premier League	Whitby	1-1	Workington

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	13	9	3	1	30	7	30
2	Redcar Athletic	13	8	4	1	28	11	28
3	Guiseley	12	8	1	3	25	11	25
4	Avro FC	11	8	1	2	33	20	25
5	Curzon Ashton	11	7	1	3	23	11	22
6	Workington	13	6	3	4	23	22	21
7	Warrington Rylands	13	6	2	5	20	20	20
8	Bury	11	6	1	4	22	11	19
9	Gainsborough	11	6	1	4	22	15	19
10	Warrington Town	11	5	4	2	22	18	19
11	Alfreton Town	13	6	0	7	20	16	18
12	Lancaster City	13	5	2	6	18	26	17
13	Hyde Utd	13	4	2	7	13	23	14
14	Ashton Utd	11	3	4	4	14	13	13
15	Quorn	12	3	4	5	21	27	13
16	Whitby	12	4	1	7	17	32	13
17	Stockton Town	13	3	3	7	17	24	12
18	Leek Town	12	2	5	5	24	25	11
19	Emley AFC	12	2	4	6	11	24	10
20	Bamber Bridge	12	2	4	6	16	31	10
21	Ilkeston	13	2	1	10	7	31	7
22	FC United of Manchester	11	1	3	7	14	22	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Workington	Whitby
Quorn	0-3 L	6-3 W
Warrington Town	2-2 D	0-5 L
Cleethorpes Town	1-1 D	0-6 L
Ilkeston	3-1 W	2-0 W
Lancaster City	3-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Workington (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Workington

LWWWWWWDDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Quorn England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-3	3	6	L
06/10	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-2	2-2	1	3	D
03/10	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-1	0	5	D
29/09	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-1	3-1	3	4	W
12/09	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
29/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-2	6	2	W
25/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-1	8	1	W
19/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L

Whitby

WLLLWLWLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	6	2	D
06/10	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-3	2-6	3	0	L
29/09	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
12/09	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	3-1	2	1	W
31/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-4	1	4	L
29/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	–	6-3	–	–	W
25/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-3	0-6	2	2	L
22/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-5	–	–	L
18/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
15/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Workington vs Whitby?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Workington win (57%). Probabilities: Workington 57%, draw 22%, Whitby 21%.

How many goals are expected in Workington vs Whitby?

The model expects 3.87 goals (Workington 2.4 · Whitby 1.47), with a 59% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Workington vs Whitby?

The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 2-1.