Football · England Northern Premier League · 13/10, 20:45

Prediction: Warrington Rylands vs Curzon Ashton

Team pages: Warrington Rylands · Curzon Ashton

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.22Total

Warrington Rylands1.59

Curzon Ashton1.63

1X2

36% 25% 38%

Warrington Rylands Draw Curzon Ashton

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 60% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Warrington Rylands 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WLLWWDWWDL

Curzon Ashton 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LLDLWWWWWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Warrington Rylands 1520 · Curzon Ashton 1560

	Warrington Rylands	Draw	Curzon Ashton
Our model	37%	25%	38%
Market	36%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.22 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Curzon Ashton (rating 1520 vs 1560).
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Warrington Rylands	Curzon Ashton
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.8	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.9	1.1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/25/50%	57/29/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.3	1.9 / 3.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.4 / 0.3	3.1 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.50

22.35

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.95

2 (0)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.752.00

Under 2.751.80

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.4

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:04

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.35 → 2.35	Bet365 2.35

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
12:53 +11’	2.45	3.50	2.35

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	13	9	3	1	30	7	30
2	Redcar Athletic	13	8	4	1	28	11	28
3	Guiseley	12	8	1	3	25	11	25
4	Avro FC	11	8	1	2	33	20	25
5	Curzon Ashton	11	7	1	3	23	11	22
6	Workington	13	6	3	4	23	22	21
7	Warrington Rylands	13	6	2	5	20	20	20
8	Bury	11	6	1	4	22	11	19
9	Gainsborough	11	6	1	4	22	15	19
10	Warrington Town	11	5	4	2	22	18	19
11	Alfreton Town	13	6	0	7	20	16	18
12	Lancaster City	13	5	2	6	18	26	17
13	Hyde Utd	13	4	2	7	13	23	14
14	Ashton Utd	11	3	4	4	14	13	13
15	Quorn	12	3	4	5	21	27	13
16	Whitby	12	4	1	7	17	32	13
17	Stockton Town	13	3	3	7	17	24	12
18	Leek Town	12	2	5	5	24	25	11
19	Emley AFC	12	2	4	6	11	24	10
20	Bamber Bridge	12	2	4	6	16	31	10
21	Ilkeston	13	2	1	10	7	31	7
22	FC United of Manchester	11	1	3	7	14	22	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Warrington Rylands	Curzon Ashton
Cleethorpes Town	0-3 L	3-1 W
Emley AFC	4-1 W	1-2 L
Bamber Bridge	3-1 W	2-2 D
Redcar Athletic	0-5 L	3-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 1 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Warrington Rylands

WLLWWDWWDL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-3	4	6	L
06/10	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-3	3-3	6	2	D
03/10	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-1	1	2	W
29/09	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	10	2	W
12/09	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
31/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	2-0	3-1	5	7	W
29/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
25/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	2-3	–	–	L
22/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-5	1	1	L
18/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W

Curzon Ashton

LLDLWWWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	6	3	W
06/10	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	3-0	3-1	2	2	W
12/09	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	3	0	W
31/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-0	5	5	W
28/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-1	1	2	W
25/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	4-0	2	3	W
22/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	1-2	1-2	5	7	L
18/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
14/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	–	2-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Warrington Rylands vs Curzon Ashton?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Curzon Ashton win (38%). Probabilities: Warrington Rylands 36%, draw 25%, Curzon Ashton 38%.

How many goals are expected in Warrington Rylands vs Curzon Ashton?

The model expects 3.22 goals (Warrington Rylands 1.59 · Curzon Ashton 1.63), with a 52% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Warrington Rylands vs Curzon Ashton?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.