Football · England Northern Premier League · 13/10, 20:45

Prediction: Redcar Athletic vs Avro FC

Team pages: Redcar Athletic · Avro FC

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.52Total

Redcar Athletic1.94

Avro FC1.57

1X2

45% 24% 30%

Redcar Athletic Draw Avro FC

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Redcar Athletic 7-2-1 (W-D-L)

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Avro FC 7-1-2 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Redcar Athletic 1575 · Avro FC 1561

	Redcar Athletic	Draw	Avro FC
Our model	46%	24%	31%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.52 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 67%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Redcar Athletic	Avro FC
Goals for / against (FT)	2.6 / 1	3.1 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1	1.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	40/20/40%	29/71/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.2 / 3	1.4 / 5.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0	2.9 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.98

Under 31.82

Diff.: 1.3 · xG: 4.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
15:06 +6’	2.00	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	13	9	3	1	30	7	30
2	Redcar Athletic	13	8	4	1	28	11	28
3	Guiseley	12	8	1	3	25	11	25
4	Avro FC	11	8	1	2	33	20	25
5	Curzon Ashton	11	7	1	3	23	11	22
6	Workington	13	6	3	4	23	22	21
7	Warrington Rylands	13	6	2	5	20	20	20
8	Bury	11	6	1	4	22	11	19
9	Gainsborough	11	6	1	4	22	15	19
10	Warrington Town	11	5	4	2	22	18	19
11	Alfreton Town	13	6	0	7	20	16	18
12	Lancaster City	13	5	2	6	18	26	17
13	Hyde Utd	13	4	2	7	13	23	14
14	Ashton Utd	11	3	4	4	14	13	13
15	Quorn	12	3	4	5	21	27	13
16	Whitby	12	4	1	7	17	32	13
17	Stockton Town	13	3	3	7	17	24	12
18	Leek Town	12	2	5	5	24	25	11
19	Emley AFC	12	2	4	6	11	24	10
20	Bamber Bridge	12	2	4	6	16	31	10
21	Ilkeston	13	2	1	10	7	31	7
22	FC United of Manchester	11	1	3	7	14	22	6

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Redcar Athletic	Avro FC
Alfreton Town	3-1 W	0-3 L
Leek Town	3-2 W	4-4 D
Stockton Town	2-0 W	5-3 W
FC United of Manchester	3-2 W	4-3 W
Lancaster City	3-1 W	5-3 W
Record vs common	5 W 0 D 0 L	3 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Redcar Athletic (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Redcar Athletic

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	5-0	–	–	W
06/10	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-3	1-3	2	2	L
03/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	–	3-1	–	–	W
22/09	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
12/09	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-2	3-2	2	5	W
31/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	–	3-2	–	–	W
25/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-0	5-0	4	1	W
18/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	3-1	–	–	W

Avro FC

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	4	6	L
07/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	2-2	5-3	4	1	W
12/09	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	4	W
31/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	1-1	4-3	8	2	W
29/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	3-1	5-3	6	2	W
26/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	2-2	4-4	6	0	D
22/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	3	5	W
19/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
15/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
11/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	–	6-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Redcar Athletic vs Avro FC?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Redcar Athletic win (45%). Probabilities: Redcar Athletic 45%, draw 24%, Avro FC 30%.

How many goals are expected in Redcar Athletic vs Avro FC?

The model expects 3.52 goals (Redcar Athletic 1.94 · Avro FC 1.57), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Redcar Athletic vs Avro FC?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.