Football · England Northern Premier League · 13/10, 20:45

Prediction: Lancaster City vs Stockton Town

Team pages: Lancaster City · Stockton Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.1Total

Lancaster City1.54

Stockton Town1.56

1X2

37% 26% 38%

Lancaster City Draw Stockton Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 62% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Lancaster City 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

LDWWLLWWLD

Stockton Town 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLLDWLWD

Head-to-head

Lancaster City 1–1–2 Stockton Town (4 last)

Stockton Town1-1Lancaster City
Lancaster City1-2Stockton Town
Stockton Town1-0Lancaster City
Lancaster City2-1Stockton Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lancaster City 1484 · Stockton Town 1462

	Lancaster City	Draw	Stockton Town
Our model	36%	26%	38%
Market	37%	26%	38%

Estimated total (ours) 3.1 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Stockton Town: 2-1-1.
High corners: 11.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lancaster City	Stockton Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2	1.6 / 2.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.7	0.6 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/50/17%	20/20/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.7 / 4.7	2.2 / 6.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.3 / 0	3.2 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.45

X3.50

22.38

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.93

2 (0)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.95

Under 2.751.85

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 15:12

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.38 → 2.38	Bet365 2.38

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:56 +16’	2.45	3.50	2.38

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lancaster City 1–1–2 Stockton Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 England Northern Premier League	Stockton Town	1-1	Lancaster City
22/11/25 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	1-2	Stockton Town
15/01/25 England Northern Premier League	Stockton Town	1-0 HT 1-0	Lancaster City
10/09/24 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	2-1 HT 1-1	Stockton Town

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	13	9	3	1	30	7	30
2	Redcar Athletic	13	8	4	1	28	11	28
3	Guiseley	12	8	1	3	25	11	25
4	Avro FC	11	8	1	2	33	20	25
5	Curzon Ashton	11	7	1	3	23	11	22
6	Workington	13	6	3	4	23	22	21
7	Warrington Rylands	13	6	2	5	20	20	20
8	Bury	11	6	1	4	22	11	19
9	Gainsborough	11	6	1	4	22	15	19
10	Warrington Town	11	5	4	2	22	18	19
11	Alfreton Town	13	6	0	7	20	16	18
12	Lancaster City	13	5	2	6	18	26	17
13	Hyde Utd	13	4	2	7	13	23	14
14	Ashton Utd	11	3	4	4	14	13	13
15	Quorn	12	3	4	5	21	27	13
16	Whitby	12	4	1	7	17	32	13
17	Stockton Town	13	3	3	7	17	24	12
18	Leek Town	12	2	5	5	24	25	11
19	Emley AFC	12	2	4	6	11	24	10
20	Bamber Bridge	12	2	4	6	16	31	10
21	Ilkeston	13	2	1	10	7	31	7
22	FC United of Manchester	11	1	3	7	14	22	6

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lancaster City	Stockton Town
Avro FC	3-5 L	3-5 L
Guiseley	2-1 W	0-3 L
Bury	1-0 W	1-0 W
Redcar Athletic	1-3 L	0-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 2 L	1 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Lancaster City (1 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lancaster City

LDWWLLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-2	3	1	D
07/10	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	2-2	3-5	3	1	L
03/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/09	Whitby England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	4	W
12/09	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	8	0	L
31/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
28/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
25/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
22/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
18/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	1-3	–	–	L

Stockton Town

LWLLLDWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/10	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
06/10	Bury England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
19/09	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	–	5-2	–	–	W
12/09	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
31/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
29/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	1-3	3-5	2	2	L
25/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-3	8	1	L
22/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-0	9	7	W
18/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lancaster City vs Stockton Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Stockton Town win (38%). Probabilities: Lancaster City 37%, draw 26%, Stockton Town 38%.

How many goals are expected in Lancaster City vs Stockton Town?

The model expects 3.1 goals (Lancaster City 1.54 · Stockton Town 1.56), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Lancaster City vs Stockton Town?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.