Football · England Northern Premier League · 06/10, 20:45

Prediction: Ilkeston vs Guiseley

Team pages: Ilkeston · Guiseley

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Ilkeston1.21

Guiseley1.75

1X2

25% 26% 49%

Ilkeston Draw Guiseley

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Ilkeston 1-1-8 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLLLLL

Guiseley 6-1-3 (W-D-L)

LWDWWWLWWL

Head-to-head

Ilkeston 3–2–1 Guiseley (6 last)

Ilkeston1-0Guiseley
Guiseley1-4Ilkeston
Guiseley1-1Ilkeston
Ilkeston1-1Guiseley
Guiseley1-2Ilkeston
Ilkeston1-4Guiseley

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ilkeston 1404 · Guiseley 1562

	Ilkeston	Draw	Guiseley
Our model	25%	26%	49%
Market	25%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 62%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guiseley (rating 1404 vs 1562).
H2H favours Ilkeston: 3-2-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ilkeston	Guiseley
Goals for / against (FT)	0.6 / 2.4	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1.2	1.3 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	67/17/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	1 / 2.6	3.3 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.2	4.7 / 0

Odds Bet365

13.60

X3.40

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.88

2 (-0.5)1.93

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:09 +22’	3.60	3.40	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ilkeston 3–2–1 Guiseley

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/02/26 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	1-0	Guiseley
11/10/25 England Northern Premier League	Guiseley	1-4 HT 0-1	Ilkeston
15/02/25 England Northern Premier League	Guiseley	1-1	Ilkeston
19/10/24 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	1-1	Guiseley
23/03/24 England Northern Premier League	Guiseley	1-2 HT 1-1	Ilkeston
28/11/23 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	1-4 HT 1-3	Guiseley

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	11	7	4	0	22	8	25
2	Cleethorpes Town	11	7	3	1	26	7	24
3	Avro FC	9	7	1	1	28	16	22
4	Workington	11	6	2	3	21	17	20
5	Guiseley	10	6	1	3	22	11	19
6	Warrington Rylands	11	6	1	4	17	14	19
7	Warrington Town	9	5	2	2	18	14	17
8	Bury	9	5	1	3	19	8	16
9	Curzon Ashton	9	5	1	3	18	10	16
10	Lancaster City	11	5	1	5	13	19	16
11	Alfreton Town	11	5	0	6	17	13	15
12	Hyde Utd	11	4	2	5	13	20	14
13	Gainsborough	9	4	1	4	14	12	13
14	Whitby	10	4	0	6	15	26	12
15	Ashton Utd	9	3	2	4	10	9	11
16	Emley AFC	11	2	4	5	10	22	10
17	Leek Town	10	2	3	5	19	20	9
18	Quorn	10	2	3	5	16	25	9
19	Bamber Bridge	11	2	3	6	16	31	9
20	Stockton Town	11	2	2	7	14	22	8
21	Ilkeston	11	2	1	8	7	24	7
22	FC United of Manchester	9	1	2	6	12	19	5

Common opponents 7 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ilkeston	Guiseley
Lancaster City	1-2 L	1-2 L
Workington	1-3 L	2-2 D
Quorn	0-2 L	4-1 W
Bury	0-7 L	3-2 W
Warrington Town	1-2 L	1-2 L
Whitby	0-2 L	2-0 W
Emley AFC	2-1 W	4-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 0 D 6 L	4 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Guiseley (5 of 7 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ilkeston

WLLLDLLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/09	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
12/09	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	1-3	–	–	L
31/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
29/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-4	0-7	0	3	L
25/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
22/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
18/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
15/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W

Guiseley

LWDWWWLWWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/09	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	6	6	L
12/09	Quorn England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
31/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-0	4	5	W
28/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-2	3	5	L
25/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	10	1	W
22/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-1	4	7	W
18/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	2-2	3-2	5	4	W
15/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
08/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ilkeston vs Guiseley?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Guiseley win (49%). Probabilities: Ilkeston 25%, draw 26%, Guiseley 49%.

How many goals are expected in Ilkeston vs Guiseley?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Ilkeston 1.21 · Guiseley 1.75), with a 54% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ilkeston vs Guiseley?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.