Football · England Northern Premier League · 06/10, 20:45

Prediction: Leek Town vs Warrington Rylands

Team pages: Leek Town · Warrington Rylands

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.89Total

Leek Town1.22

Warrington Rylands1.67

1X2

27% 26% 47%

Leek Town Draw Warrington Rylands

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Leek Town 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDDLWDLLLW

Warrington Rylands 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

LLWLLWWDWW

Head-to-head

Leek Town 1–4 Warrington Rylands (5 last)

Leek Town0-2Warrington Rylands
Warrington Rylands2-0Leek Town
Warrington Rylands2-0Leek Town
Leek Town0-1Warrington Rylands
Leek Town3-0Warrington Rylands

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leek Town 1484 · Warrington Rylands 1534

	Leek Town	Draw	Warrington Rylands
Our model	27%	26%	47%
Market	27%	26%	47%

Estimated total (ours) 2.89 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 61%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Warrington Rylands (rating 1484 vs 1534).
H2H favours Warrington Rylands: 4-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leek Town	Warrington Rylands
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 2	1.4 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.2	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/50/33%	38/25/38%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3	2.3 / 4.1
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.2	3.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

13.30

X3.50

21.91

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.82

2 (-0.5)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.30 → 3.30	Bet365 3.30
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.91 → 1.91	Bet365 1.91

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
14:10 +21’	3.30	3.50	1.91

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leek Town 1–0–4 Warrington Rylands

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Date	Home	Score	Away
14/03/26 England Northern Premier League	Leek Town	0-2 HT 0-1	Warrington Rylands
01/11/25 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Rylands	2-0 HT 2-0	Leek Town
18/02/25 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Rylands	2-0 HT 1-0	Leek Town
15/10/24 England Northern Premier League	Leek Town	0-1 HT 0-0	Warrington Rylands
18/12/21 England Northern League Division One	Leek Town	3-0 HT 1-0	Warrington Rylands

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	11	7	4	0	22	8	25
2	Cleethorpes Town	11	7	3	1	26	7	24
3	Avro FC	9	7	1	1	28	16	22
4	Workington	11	6	2	3	21	17	20
5	Guiseley	10	6	1	3	22	11	19
6	Warrington Rylands	11	6	1	4	17	14	19
7	Warrington Town	9	5	2	2	18	14	17
8	Bury	9	5	1	3	19	8	16
9	Curzon Ashton	9	5	1	3	18	10	16
10	Lancaster City	11	5	1	5	13	19	16
11	Alfreton Town	11	5	0	6	17	13	15
12	Hyde Utd	11	4	2	5	13	20	14
13	Gainsborough	9	4	1	4	14	12	13
14	Whitby	10	4	0	6	15	26	12
15	Ashton Utd	9	3	2	4	10	9	11
16	Emley AFC	11	2	4	5	10	22	10
17	Leek Town	10	2	3	5	19	20	9
18	Quorn	10	2	3	5	16	25	9
19	Bamber Bridge	11	2	3	6	16	31	9
20	Stockton Town	11	2	2	7	14	22	8
21	Ilkeston	11	2	1	8	7	24	7
22	FC United of Manchester	9	1	2	6	12	19	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leek Town	Warrington Rylands
Redcar Athletic	2-3 L	0-5 L
Workington	2-3 L	2-3 L
Bamber Bridge	4-1 W	3-1 W
Emley AFC	1-2 L	4-1 W
Stockton Town	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Leek Town (2 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leek Town

LDDLWDLLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/09	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
12/09	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-3	0	5	L
01/09	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
29/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-3	3	2	L
26/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	2-2	4-4	3	0	D
22/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
18/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	0	L
15/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L

Warrington Rylands

LLWLLWWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-1	1	2	W
29/09	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	10	2	W
12/09	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
31/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	2-0	3-1	5	7	W
29/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-1	3	6	W
25/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	2-3	–	–	L
22/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-5	1	1	L
18/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	7	5	W
15/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	2	6	L
11/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leek Town vs Warrington Rylands?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Warrington Rylands win (47%). Probabilities: Leek Town 27%, draw 26%, Warrington Rylands 47%.

How many goals are expected in Leek Town vs Warrington Rylands?

The model expects 2.89 goals (Leek Town 1.22 · Warrington Rylands 1.67), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Leek Town vs Warrington Rylands?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.