Football · England Northern Premier League · 06/10, 20:45

Prediction: Quorn vs Ashton Utd

Team pages: Quorn · Ashton Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.17Total

Quorn1.65

Ashton Utd1.52

1X2

40% 26% 34%

Quorn Draw Ashton Utd

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 12%

Recent form · 10 last

Quorn 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLDLDDLWLW

Ashton Utd 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

DWWLWDDLLL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Quorn 1482 · Ashton Utd 1493

	Quorn	Draw	Ashton Utd
Our model	40%	26%	34%
Market	40%	26%	34%

Estimated total (ours) 3.17 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Quorn	Ashton Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 2.5	1.3 / 1.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.4	0.5 / 0.7
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	33/33/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 4	2.7 / 5.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0.2	3.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.25

X3.50

22.63

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.77

2 (0)2.02

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.3

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:31

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.25 → 2.25	Bet365 2.25
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.63 → 2.63	Bet365 2.63

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
14:08 +22’	2.25	3.50	2.63

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	11	7	4	0	22	8	25
2	Cleethorpes Town	11	7	3	1	26	7	24
3	Avro FC	9	7	1	1	28	16	22
4	Workington	11	6	2	3	21	17	20
5	Guiseley	10	6	1	3	22	11	19
6	Warrington Rylands	11	6	1	4	17	14	19
7	Warrington Town	9	5	2	2	18	14	17
8	Bury	9	5	1	3	19	8	16
9	Curzon Ashton	9	5	1	3	18	10	16
10	Lancaster City	11	5	1	5	13	19	16
11	Alfreton Town	11	5	0	6	17	13	15
12	Hyde Utd	11	4	2	5	13	20	14
13	Gainsborough	9	4	1	4	14	12	13
14	Whitby	10	4	0	6	15	26	12
15	Ashton Utd	9	3	2	4	10	9	11
16	Emley AFC	11	2	4	5	10	22	10
17	Leek Town	10	2	3	5	19	20	9
18	Quorn	10	2	3	5	16	25	9
19	Bamber Bridge	11	2	3	6	16	31	9
20	Stockton Town	11	2	2	7	14	22	8
21	Ilkeston	11	2	1	8	7	24	7
22	FC United of Manchester	9	1	2	6	12	19	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Quorn	Ashton Utd
Bamber Bridge	4-2 W	0-1 L
Ilkeston	2-0 W	1-1 D
Whitby	3-6 L	2-0 W
Gainsborough	2-2 D	1-2 L
Lancaster City	2-2 D	4-1 W
Cleethorpes Town	0-5 L	0-1 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 1 D 3 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Quorn

LLDLDDLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-2	7	1	W
12/09	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L
31/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
29/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	3-6	–	–	L
25/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
22/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
18/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	1	5	L
15/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-1	3	4	D
11/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-5	–	–	L
08/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L

Ashton Utd

DWWLWDDLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
31/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
28/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-2	10	6	L
25/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
22/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
15/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
11/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
25/04	Hednesford England Northern Premier League	–	3-3	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Quorn vs Ashton Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Quorn win (40%). Probabilities: Quorn 40%, draw 26%, Ashton Utd 34%.

How many goals are expected in Quorn vs Ashton Utd?

The model expects 3.17 goals (Quorn 1.65 · Ashton Utd 1.52), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Quorn vs Ashton Utd?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.