Football · England Northern Premier League · 06/10, 20:45

Prediction: Warrington Town vs Workington

Team pages: Warrington Town · Workington

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.43Total

Warrington Town1.86

Workington1.57

1X2

43% 25% 31%

Warrington Town Draw Workington

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Warrington Town 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Workington 6-2-2 (W-D-L)

LDLWWWWWWD

Head-to-head

Warrington Town 2–3–1 Workington (6 last)

Warrington Town2-3Workington
Workington1-1Warrington Town
Workington0-2Warrington Town
Warrington Town2-0Workington
Warrington Town1-1Workington
Workington1-1Warrington Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Warrington Town 1518 · Workington 1558

	Warrington Town	Draw	Workington
Our model	44%	24%	32%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.43 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 59%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Workington (rating 1518 vs 1558).
H2H favours Warrington Town: 2-3-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Warrington Town	Workington
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	2.1 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.8	0.4 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	20/60/20%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.8	2.4 / 5.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	2.6 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.90

Under 2.751.90

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:30

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:23 +7’	2.10	3.40	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Warrington Town 2–3–1 Workington

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Date	Home	Score	Away
18/04/26 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Town	2-3 HT 2-0	Workington
22/11/25 England Northern Premier League	Workington	1-1	Warrington Town
26/02/19 England Northern Premier League	Workington	0-2 HT 0-0	Warrington Town
04/09/18 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Town	2-0 HT 2-0	Workington
27/03/18 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Town	1-1 HT 1-0	Workington
05/09/17 England Northern Premier League	Workington	1-1 HT 0-1	Warrington Town

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	11	7	4	0	22	8	25
2	Cleethorpes Town	11	7	3	1	26	7	24
3	Avro FC	9	7	1	1	28	16	22
4	Workington	11	6	2	3	21	17	20
5	Guiseley	10	6	1	3	22	11	19
6	Warrington Rylands	11	6	1	4	17	14	19
7	Warrington Town	9	5	2	2	18	14	17
8	Bury	9	5	1	3	19	8	16
9	Curzon Ashton	9	5	1	3	18	10	16
10	Lancaster City	11	5	1	5	13	19	16
11	Alfreton Town	11	5	0	6	17	13	15
12	Hyde Utd	11	4	2	5	13	20	14
13	Gainsborough	9	4	1	4	14	12	13
14	Whitby	10	4	0	6	15	26	12
15	Ashton Utd	9	3	2	4	10	9	11
16	Emley AFC	11	2	4	5	10	22	10
17	Leek Town	10	2	3	5	19	20	9
18	Quorn	10	2	3	5	16	25	9
19	Bamber Bridge	11	2	3	6	16	31	9
20	Stockton Town	11	2	2	7	14	22	8
21	Ilkeston	11	2	1	8	7	24	7
22	FC United of Manchester	9	1	2	6	12	19	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Warrington Town	Workington
FC United of Manchester	1-4 L	2-1 W
Leek Town	2-1 W	3-2 W
Emley AFC	2-2 D	3-1 W
Ilkeston	2-1 W	3-1 W
Cleethorpes Town	1-1 D	1-1 D
Guiseley	2-1 W	2-2 D
Record vs common	3 W 2 D 1 L	4 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Workington (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Warrington Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-4	2	5	L
01/09	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
29/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
25/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
22/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	5-0	–	–	W
18/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
15/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
08/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
25/04	Morpeth Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L

Workington

LDLWWWWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-1	0	5	D
29/09	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-1	3-1	3	4	W
12/09	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
29/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-2	6	2	W
25/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-1	8	1	W
19/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-4	9	2	L
15/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Warrington Town vs Workington?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Warrington Town win (43%). Probabilities: Warrington Town 43%, draw 25%, Workington 31%.

How many goals are expected in Warrington Town vs Workington?

The model expects 3.43 goals (Warrington Town 1.86 · Workington 1.57), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Warrington Town vs Workington?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.