Football · England Northern Premier League · 06/10, 20:45

Prediction: Whitby vs Gainsborough

Team pages: Whitby · Gainsborough

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.5Total

Whitby1.47

Gainsborough2.03

1X2

26% 25% 49%

Whitby Draw Gainsborough

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Whitby 4-0-6 (W-D-L)

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Gainsborough 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLWWLDWLL

Head-to-head

Whitby 0–6 Gainsborough (6 last)

Whitby1-2Gainsborough
Gainsborough1-0Whitby
Gainsborough2-1Whitby
Whitby0-2Gainsborough
Whitby0-1Gainsborough
Gainsborough2-0Whitby

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Whitby 1431 · Gainsborough 1516

	Whitby	Draw	Gainsborough
Our model	27%	23%	50%
Market	26%	26%	49%

Estimated total (ours) 3.5 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 69%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gainsborough (rating 1431 vs 1516).
H2H favours Gainsborough: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Whitby	Gainsborough
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.6	1.5 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.8	0.7 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/20/80%	29/57/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.4	1.1 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.4 / 0.2	2.3 / 0.1

Odds Bet365

13.50

X3.50

21.85

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.5)1.93

2 (-0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 3.55

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 11:53

	Bet365	Best now
1	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
11:40 +13’	3.50	3.50	1.85

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Whitby 0–0–6 Gainsborough

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/02/26 England Northern Premier League	Whitby	1-2 HT 1-1	Gainsborough
16/09/25 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	1-0 HT 1-0	Whitby
25/03/25 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	2-1 HT 1-0	Whitby
05/11/24 England Northern Premier League	Whitby	0-2 HT 0-0	Gainsborough
09/03/24 England Northern Premier League	Whitby	0-1	Gainsborough
02/03/24 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	2-0	Whitby

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	11	7	4	0	22	8	25
2	Cleethorpes Town	11	7	3	1	26	7	24
3	Avro FC	9	7	1	1	28	16	22
4	Workington	11	6	2	3	21	17	20
5	Guiseley	10	6	1	3	22	11	19
6	Warrington Rylands	11	6	1	4	17	14	19
7	Warrington Town	9	5	2	2	18	14	17
8	Bury	9	5	1	3	19	8	16
9	Curzon Ashton	9	5	1	3	18	10	16
10	Lancaster City	11	5	1	5	13	19	16
11	Alfreton Town	11	5	0	6	17	13	15
12	Hyde Utd	11	4	2	5	13	20	14
13	Gainsborough	9	4	1	4	14	12	13
14	Whitby	10	4	0	6	15	26	12
15	Ashton Utd	9	3	2	4	10	9	11
16	Emley AFC	11	2	4	5	10	22	10
17	Leek Town	10	2	3	5	19	20	9
18	Quorn	10	2	3	5	16	25	9
19	Bamber Bridge	11	2	3	6	16	31	9
20	Stockton Town	11	2	2	7	14	22	8
21	Ilkeston	11	2	1	8	7	24	7
22	FC United of Manchester	9	1	2	6	12	19	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Whitby	Gainsborough
Hyde Utd	3-1 W	1-3 L
Alfreton Town	1-4 L	1-2 L
Quorn	6-3 W	2-2 D
Cleethorpes Town	0-6 L	0-3 L
Ashton Utd	0-2 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 3 L	1 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Gainsborough (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Whitby

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/09	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	2	4	L
12/09	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	3-1	2	1	W
31/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-4	1	4	L
29/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	–	6-3	–	–	W
25/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-3	0-6	2	2	L
22/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-5	–	–	L
18/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-2	0-2	10	2	L
15/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
11/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
08/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W

Gainsborough

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	4	L
31/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-3	3	2	L
28/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-1	0	6	W
25/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	7	0	D
22/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
18/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
15/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
11/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
08/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
25/04	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-3	1-3	7	1	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Whitby vs Gainsborough?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Gainsborough win (49%). Probabilities: Whitby 26%, draw 25%, Gainsborough 49%.

How many goals are expected in Whitby vs Gainsborough?

The model expects 3.5 goals (Whitby 1.47 · Gainsborough 2.03), with a 59% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Whitby vs Gainsborough?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.