Football · England Northern Premier League · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Lancaster City vs Ilkeston

Team pages: Lancaster City · Ilkeston

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.7Total

Lancaster City1.59

Ilkeston1.11

1X2

48% 26% 26%

Lancaster City Draw Ilkeston

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Lancaster City 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

LWLLDWWLLW

Ilkeston 2-1-7 (W-D-L)

WWLLLDLLLL

Head-to-head

Lancaster City 3–3 Ilkeston (6 last)

Ilkeston3-0Lancaster City
Lancaster City3-1Ilkeston
Ilkeston4-0Lancaster City
Lancaster City4-3Ilkeston
Ilkeston2-3Lancaster City
Lancaster City0-4Ilkeston

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Lancaster City 1476 · Ilkeston 1411

	Lancaster City	Draw	Ilkeston
Our model	47%	27%	25%
Market	49%	25%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.7 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Lancaster City (rating 1476 vs 1411).
Cards-heavy: 5.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Lancaster City	Ilkeston
Goals for / against (FT)	1.1 / 1.8	0.6 / 2.2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.6	0 / 1.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	0/40/60%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 4.6	1 / 2.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0	2.4 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.60

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.93

2 (+0.5)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.80

Under 2.52.00

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 2.85

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:27

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.85 → 1.85	Bet365 1.85
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.2%

Time*	1	X	2
14:14 +13’	1.85	3.60	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Lancaster City 3–0–3 Ilkeston

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	3-0	Lancaster City
13/09/25 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	3-1	Ilkeston
15/03/25 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	4-0 HT 3-0	Lancaster City
09/11/24 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	4-3	Ilkeston
10/02/24 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	2-3 HT 1-2	Lancaster City
23/09/23 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	0-4	Ilkeston

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	10	7	2	1	25	6	23
2	Avro FC	9	7	1	1	28	16	22
3	Redcar Athletic	10	6	4	0	19	7	22
4	Guiseley	10	6	1	3	22	11	19
5	Workington	10	6	1	3	20	16	19
6	Warrington Town	9	5	2	2	18	14	17
7	Bury	9	5	1	3	19	8	16
8	Curzon Ashton	9	5	1	3	18	10	16
9	Warrington Rylands	10	5	1	4	13	13	16
10	Alfreton Town	10	5	0	5	16	10	15
11	Gainsborough	9	4	1	4	14	12	13
12	Lancaster City	10	4	1	5	11	18	13
13	Whitby	10	4	0	6	15	26	12
14	Ashton Utd	9	3	2	4	10	9	11
15	Hyde Utd	10	3	2	5	11	19	11
16	Emley AFC	10	2	4	4	9	18	10
17	Leek Town	10	2	3	5	19	20	9
18	Bamber Bridge	10	2	3	5	14	27	9
19	Stockton Town	10	2	2	6	13	20	8
20	Ilkeston	10	2	1	7	6	22	7
21	Quorn	9	1	3	5	12	23	6
22	FC United of Manchester	9	1	2	6	12	19	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Lancaster City	Ilkeston
Whitby	2-1 W	0-2 L
Workington	0-3 L	1-3 L
Bury	1-0 W	0-7 L
Quorn	2-2 D	0-2 L
Warrington Rylands	1-0 W	0-1 L
Ashton Utd	1-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 5 L

Better against common opponents: Lancaster City (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Lancaster City

LWLLDWWLLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/09	Whitby England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	4	W
12/09	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	8	0	L
31/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
28/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
25/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
22/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
18/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-3	1	2	L
15/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L

Ilkeston

WWLLLDLLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/09	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
12/09	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	1-3	–	–	L
31/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
29/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-4	0-7	0	3	L
25/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
22/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
18/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
15/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Lancaster City vs Ilkeston?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Lancaster City win (48%). Probabilities: Lancaster City 48%, draw 26%, Ilkeston 26%.

How many goals are expected in Lancaster City vs Ilkeston?

The model expects 2.7 goals (Lancaster City 1.59 · Ilkeston 1.11), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Lancaster City vs Ilkeston?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.