Football · England Northern Premier League · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Stockton Town vs FC United of Manchester

Team pages: Stockton Town · FC United of Manchester

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.27Total

Stockton Town1.81

FC United of Manchester1.46

1X2

45% 25% 30%

Stockton Town Draw FC United of Manchester

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Stockton Town 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

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FC United of Manchester 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

LDLLLDLLWL

Head-to-head

Stockton Town 2–1–1 FC United of Manchester (4 last)

FC United of Manchester1-1Stockton Town
Stockton Town2-3FC United of Manchester
FC United of Manchester0-1Stockton Town
Stockton Town1-0FC United of Manchester

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stockton Town 1449 · FC United of Manchester 1489

	Stockton Town	Draw	FC United of Manchester
Our model	45%	25%	30%
Market	45%	25%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 3.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours FC United of Manchester (rating 1449 vs 1489).
H2H favours Stockton Town: 2-1-1.
Cards-heavy: 5.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stockton Town	FC United of Manchester
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2	1.2 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 1.2	0.6 / 0.2
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/20/60%	40/60/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.2 / 6.4	2.2 / 4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	2.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.82

Under 2.751.98

Diff.: 0.6 · xG: 3.35

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:29 +6’	2.00	3.60	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Stockton Town 2–1–1 FC United of Manchester

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/04/26 England Northern Premier League	FC United of Manchester	1-1 HT 1-0	Stockton Town
07/03/26 England Northern Premier League	Stockton Town	2-3 HT 1-0	FC United of Manchester
29/03/25 England Northern Premier League	FC United of Manchester	0-1 HT 0-1	Stockton Town
23/11/24 England Northern Premier League	Stockton Town	1-0	FC United of Manchester

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	11	7	4	0	22	8	25
2	Cleethorpes Town	11	7	3	1	26	7	24
3	Avro FC	9	7	1	1	28	16	22
4	Workington	11	6	2	3	21	17	20
5	Guiseley	10	6	1	3	22	11	19
6	Warrington Rylands	11	6	1	4	17	14	19
7	Warrington Town	9	5	2	2	18	14	17
8	Bury	9	5	1	3	19	8	16
9	Curzon Ashton	9	5	1	3	18	10	16
10	Lancaster City	11	5	1	5	13	19	16
11	Alfreton Town	11	5	0	6	17	13	15
12	Hyde Utd	11	4	2	5	13	20	14
13	Gainsborough	9	4	1	4	14	12	13
14	Whitby	10	4	0	6	15	26	12
15	Ashton Utd	9	3	2	4	10	9	11
16	Emley AFC	11	2	4	5	10	22	10
17	Leek Town	10	2	3	5	19	20	9
18	Quorn	10	2	3	5	16	25	9
19	Bamber Bridge	11	2	3	6	16	31	9
20	Stockton Town	11	2	2	7	14	22	8
21	Ilkeston	11	2	1	8	7	24	7
22	FC United of Manchester	9	1	2	6	12	19	5

Common opponents 8 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stockton Town	FC United of Manchester
Hyde Utd	1-2 L	0-1 L
Bamber Bridge	5-2 W	1-1 D
Warrington Rylands	1-1 D	0-3 L
Redcar Athletic	0-2 L	2-3 L
Avro FC	3-5 L	3-4 L
Alfreton Town	2-0 W	0-1 L
Gainsborough	1-4 L	0-3 L
Leek Town	1-1 D	1-1 D
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 4 L	0 W 2 D 6 L

Better against common opponents: Stockton Town (3 of 8 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stockton Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Bury England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
03/10	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-2	9	4	L
19/09	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	–	5-2	–	–	W
12/09	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
31/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
29/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	1-3	3-5	2	2	L
25/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-3	8	1	L
22/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-0	9	7	W
18/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L
15/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D

FC United of Manchester

LDLLLDLLWL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	1	L
12/09	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	4-1	5	5	W
31/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	1-1	3-4	4	2	L
29/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	2-3	–	–	L
25/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
22/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-2	6	1	L
18/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
11/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
08/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stockton Town vs FC United of Manchester?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Stockton Town win (45%). Probabilities: Stockton Town 45%, draw 25%, FC United of Manchester 30%.

How many goals are expected in Stockton Town vs FC United of Manchester?

The model expects 3.27 goals (Stockton Town 1.81 · FC United of Manchester 1.46), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Stockton Town vs FC United of Manchester?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.