Football · England Northern Premier League · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Quorn vs Workington

Team pages: Quorn · Workington

Prediction summary

Expected goals

4.01Total

Quorn2.04

Workington1.98

1X2

39% 24% 37%

Quorn Draw Workington

Markets

Under 4.5 goals 63% Both teams to score 62%

Most likely score

1-1 8%

Recent form · 10 last

Quorn 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

LDLDDLWLWD

Workington 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

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Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Quorn 1478 · Workington 1559

	Quorn	Draw	Workington
Our model	40%	22%	38%
Market	39%	25%	36%

Estimated total (ours) 4.01 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +1

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 68%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Workington (rating 1478 vs 1559).
Cards-heavy: 4.8 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Quorn	Workington
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 2.5	2.3 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 0.5	0.4 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	3 / 5.8	1.4 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2 / 0	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.30

X3.60

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.82

2 (0)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 31.90

Under 31.90

Diff.: 1.05 · xG: 4.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.30 → 2.30	Bet365 2.30
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.45 → 2.45	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:31 +4’	2.30	3.60	2.45

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	11	7	4	0	22	8	25
2	Cleethorpes Town	11	7	3	1	26	7	24
3	Avro FC	9	7	1	1	28	16	22
4	Workington	11	6	2	3	21	17	20
5	Guiseley	10	6	1	3	22	11	19
6	Warrington Rylands	11	6	1	4	17	14	19
7	Warrington Town	9	5	2	2	18	14	17
8	Bury	9	5	1	3	19	8	16
9	Curzon Ashton	9	5	1	3	18	10	16
10	Lancaster City	11	5	1	5	13	19	16
11	Alfreton Town	11	5	0	6	17	13	15
12	Hyde Utd	11	4	2	5	13	20	14
13	Gainsborough	9	4	1	4	14	12	13
14	Whitby	10	4	0	6	15	26	12
15	Ashton Utd	9	3	2	4	10	9	11
16	Emley AFC	11	2	4	5	10	22	10
17	Leek Town	10	2	3	5	19	20	9
18	Quorn	10	2	3	5	16	25	9
19	Bamber Bridge	11	2	3	6	16	31	9
20	Stockton Town	11	2	2	7	14	22	8
21	Ilkeston	11	2	1	8	7	24	7
22	FC United of Manchester	9	1	2	6	12	19	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Quorn	Workington
Guiseley	1-4 L	2-2 D
Ilkeston	2-0 W	3-1 W
Lancaster City	2-2 D	3-0 W
Warrington Rylands	0-1 L	3-2 W
Cleethorpes Town	0-5 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Workington (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Quorn

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-2	7	6	D
03/10	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-2	7	1	W
12/09	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L
31/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	5	1	W
29/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	3-6	–	–	L
25/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	4	0	D
22/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
18/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
15/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-5	–	–	L

Workington

DLWWWWWWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-2	2-2	1	3	D
03/10	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-1	0	5	D
29/09	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-1	3-1	3	4	W
12/09	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	3-1	–	–	W
31/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
29/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-2	6	2	W
25/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-1	8	1	W
19/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L
15/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Quorn vs Workington?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Quorn win (39%). Probabilities: Quorn 39%, draw 24%, Workington 37%.

How many goals are expected in Quorn vs Workington?

The model expects 4.01 goals (Quorn 2.04 · Workington 1.98), with a 59% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Quorn vs Workington?

The model gives a 62% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.