Football · England Northern Premier League · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Leek Town vs Ashton Utd

Team pages: Leek Town · Ashton Utd

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.9Total

Leek Town1.45

Ashton Utd1.45

1X2

37% 26% 37%

Leek Town Draw Ashton Utd

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 56% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Leek Town 2-4-4 (W-D-L)

DDLWDLLLWD

Ashton Utd 3-3-4 (W-D-L)

WWLWDDLLLD

Head-to-head

Leek Town 3–1 Ashton Utd (4 last)

Ashton Utd0-1Leek Town
Leek Town2-0Ashton Utd
Leek Town3-1Ashton Utd
Ashton Utd1-0Leek Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leek Town 1528 · Ashton Utd 1476

	Leek Town	Draw	Ashton Utd
Our model	36%	27%	36%
Market	37%	26%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 2.9 goals · Bet365 line 2.75

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Leek Town (rating 1528 vs 1476).
H2H favours Leek Town: 3-0-1.
Cards-heavy: 7.4 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leek Town	Ashton Utd
Goals for / against (FT)	2.1 / 2.1	1.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	1.3 / 1.2	0.4 / 0.8
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/33/33%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.8 / 3.3	2.8 / 5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.8 / 0.2	4.6 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.40

X3.50

22.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.90

2 (0)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.93

Under 2.751.88

Diff.: 0.5 · xG: 3.25

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	2.40 → 2.40	Bet365 2.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.9%

Time*	1	X	2
13:29 +6’	2.40	3.50	2.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Head-to-head (H2H) · Leek Town 3–0–1 Ashton Utd

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 England Northern Premier League	Ashton Utd	0-1	Leek Town
11/11/25 England Northern Premier League	Leek Town	2-0 HT 1-0	Ashton Utd
22/03/25 England Northern Premier League	Leek Town	3-1 HT 1-1	Ashton Utd
16/11/24 England Northern Premier League	Ashton Utd	1-0 HT 0-0	Leek Town

Standings · England Northern Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	11	7	4	0	22	8	25
2	Cleethorpes Town	11	7	3	1	26	7	24
3	Avro FC	9	7	1	1	28	16	22
4	Workington	11	6	2	3	21	17	20
5	Guiseley	10	6	1	3	22	11	19
6	Warrington Rylands	11	6	1	4	17	14	19
7	Warrington Town	9	5	2	2	18	14	17
8	Bury	9	5	1	3	19	8	16
9	Curzon Ashton	9	5	1	3	18	10	16
10	Lancaster City	11	5	1	5	13	19	16
11	Alfreton Town	11	5	0	6	17	13	15
12	Hyde Utd	11	4	2	5	13	20	14
13	Gainsborough	9	4	1	4	14	12	13
14	Whitby	10	4	0	6	15	26	12
15	Ashton Utd	9	3	2	4	10	9	11
16	Emley AFC	11	2	4	5	10	22	10
17	Leek Town	10	2	3	5	19	20	9
18	Quorn	10	2	3	5	16	25	9
19	Bamber Bridge	11	2	3	6	16	31	9
20	Stockton Town	11	2	2	7	14	22	8
21	Ilkeston	11	2	1	8	7	24	7
22	FC United of Manchester	9	1	2	6	12	19	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leek Town	Ashton Utd
Bamber Bridge	4-1 W	0-1 L
Emley AFC	1-2 L	1-1 D
Stockton Town	1-1 D	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 1 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Ashton Utd (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leek Town

DDLWDLLLWD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	3-1	3-3	4	2	D
22/09	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-1	7	6	W
12/09	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-3	0	5	L
01/09	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	3	3	L
29/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-3	3	2	L
26/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	2-2	4-4	3	0	D
22/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
18/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D

Ashton Utd

WWLWDDLLLD

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Quorn England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-2	2	6	D
12/09	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
31/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-2	0-2	5	5	L
28/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-2	10	6	L
25/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
22/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
15/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
11/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leek Town vs Ashton Utd?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leek Town win (37%). Probabilities: Leek Town 37%, draw 26%, Ashton Utd 37%.

How many goals are expected in Leek Town vs Ashton Utd?

The model expects 2.9 goals (Leek Town 1.45 · Ashton Utd 1.45), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Leek Town vs Ashton Utd?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.