Football · England Northern Premier League · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Ilkeston vs Redcar Athletic

Team pages: Ilkeston · Redcar Athletic

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.95Total

Ilkeston1.05

Redcar Athletic1.9

1X2

20% 23% 57%

Ilkeston Draw Redcar Athletic

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 57% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Ilkeston 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLDLLLLLL

Redcar Athletic 6-3-1 (W-D-L)

DWWDWWWDWL

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ilkeston 1379 · Redcar Athletic 1564

	Ilkeston	Draw	Redcar Athletic
Our model	19%	24%	56%
Market	20%	22%	57%

Estimated total (ours) 2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 55%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Redcar Athletic (rating 1379 vs 1564).
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ilkeston	Redcar Athletic
Goals for / against (FT)	0.4 / 2.5	2.2 / 1.1
Goals for / against (HT)	0 / 1.2	0.6 / 1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/40/60%	40/20/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	0.4 / 2.4	1.2 / 3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

14.33

X4.00

21.55

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+1)1.82

2 (-1)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:35

	Bet365	Best now
1	4.33 → 4.33	Bet365 4.33
X	4.00 → 4.00	Bet365 4.00
2	1.55 → 1.55	Bet365 1.55

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:31 +4’	4.33	4.00	1.55

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

← Analysis Join the channel

Standings · England Northern Premier League

Swipe the table sideways →

#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	12	8	3	1	27	7	27
2	Avro FC	10	8	1	1	33	19	25
3	Redcar Athletic	12	7	4	1	23	11	25
4	Guiseley	11	7	1	3	24	11	22
5	Workington	12	6	3	3	23	19	21
6	Warrington Rylands	12	6	2	4	20	17	20
7	Curzon Ashton	10	6	1	3	21	11	19
8	Alfreton Town	12	6	0	6	18	13	18
9	Warrington Town	10	5	3	2	20	16	18
10	Bury	10	5	1	4	19	9	16
11	Gainsborough	10	5	1	4	20	14	16
12	Lancaster City	12	5	1	6	16	24	16
13	Hyde Utd	12	4	2	6	13	21	14
14	Ashton Utd	10	3	3	4	12	11	12
15	Whitby	11	4	0	7	17	32	12
16	Stockton Town	12	3	2	7	15	22	11
17	Leek Town	11	2	4	5	22	23	10
18	Quorn	11	2	4	5	18	27	10
19	Emley AFC	11	2	4	5	10	22	10
20	Bamber Bridge	11	2	3	6	16	31	9
21	Ilkeston	12	2	1	9	7	26	7
22	FC United of Manchester	10	1	2	7	12	20	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ilkeston	Redcar Athletic
Lancaster City	1-2 L	3-1 W
Warrington Rylands	0-1 L	5-0 W
Quorn	0-2 L	1-1 D
Cleethorpes Town	0-3 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Redcar Athletic (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ilkeston

LLLDLLLLLL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	7	L
03/10	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
29/09	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	2	L
12/09	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	1-3	–	–	L
31/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
29/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-4	0-7	0	3	L
25/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
22/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
18/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
15/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L

Redcar Athletic

DWWDWWWDWL

Swipe the table sideways →

Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-3	1-3	2	2	L
03/10	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	–	3-1	–	–	W
22/09	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
12/09	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-2	3-2	2	5	W
31/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	–	3-2	–	–	W
25/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-0	5-0	4	1	W
18/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	3-1	–	–	W
15/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ilkeston vs Redcar Athletic?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Redcar Athletic win (57%). Probabilities: Ilkeston 20%, draw 23%, Redcar Athletic 57%.

How many goals are expected in Ilkeston vs Redcar Athletic?

The model expects 2.95 goals (Ilkeston 1.05 · Redcar Athletic 1.9), with a 50% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Ilkeston vs Redcar Athletic?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.