Football · England Northern Premier League · 10/10, 16:00

Prediction: Warrington Town vs Lancaster City

Team pages: Warrington Town · Lancaster City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Warrington Town1.78

Lancaster City1.46

1X2

44% 25% 31%

Warrington Town Draw Lancaster City

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Warrington Town 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WWDWWLDWLD

Lancaster City 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLDWWLLWW

Head-to-head

Warrington Town 6–0 Lancaster City (6 last)

Lancaster City1-2Warrington Town
Warrington Town3-2Lancaster City
Warrington Town2-0Lancaster City
Lancaster City0-1Warrington Town
Warrington Town5-1Lancaster City
Lancaster City0-1Warrington Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Warrington Town 1545 · Lancaster City 1474

	Warrington Town	Draw	Lancaster City
Our model	44%	25%	31%
Market	45%	25%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 63%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Warrington Town (rating 1545 vs 1474).
H2H favours Warrington Town: 6-0-0.
Cards-heavy: 6.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Warrington Town	Lancaster City
Goals for / against (FT)	2 / 1.6	1.2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.8 / 1	0.5 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/40/40%	25/50/25%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.8 / 4.6	2 / 5.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.2	3 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.00

X3.60

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.82

2 (+0.25)1.98

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.4 · xG: 3.15

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 13:34

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.00 → 2.00	Bet365 2.00
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:32 +3’	2.00	3.60	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Warrington Town 6–0–0 Lancaster City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	1-2 HT 1-0	Warrington Town
25/10/25 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Town	3-2	Lancaster City
07/02/23 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Town	2-0 HT 1-0	Lancaster City
18/10/22 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	0-1 HT 0-1	Warrington Town
04/12/21 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Town	5-1	Lancaster City
07/09/21 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	0-1 HT 0-0	Warrington Town

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Redcar Athletic	11	7	4	0	22	8	25
2	Cleethorpes Town	11	7	3	1	26	7	24
3	Avro FC	9	7	1	1	28	16	22
4	Workington	11	6	2	3	21	17	20
5	Guiseley	10	6	1	3	22	11	19
6	Warrington Rylands	11	6	1	4	17	14	19
7	Warrington Town	9	5	2	2	18	14	17
8	Bury	9	5	1	3	19	8	16
9	Curzon Ashton	9	5	1	3	18	10	16
10	Lancaster City	11	5	1	5	13	19	16
11	Alfreton Town	11	5	0	6	17	13	15
12	Hyde Utd	11	4	2	5	13	20	14
13	Gainsborough	9	4	1	4	14	12	13
14	Whitby	10	4	0	6	15	26	12
15	Ashton Utd	9	3	2	4	10	9	11
16	Emley AFC	11	2	4	5	10	22	10
17	Leek Town	10	2	3	5	19	20	9
18	Quorn	10	2	3	5	16	25	9
19	Bamber Bridge	11	2	3	6	16	31	9
20	Stockton Town	11	2	2	7	14	22	8
21	Ilkeston	11	2	1	8	7	24	7
22	FC United of Manchester	9	1	2	6	12	19	5

Common opponents 6 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Warrington Town	Lancaster City
Workington	2-2 D	0-3 L
Curzon Ashton	0-4 L	0-2 L
Whitby	5-0 W	2-1 W
Ilkeston	2-1 W	2-1 W
Hyde Utd	3-0 W	1-2 L
Guiseley	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	4 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Warrington Town (3 of 6 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Warrington Town

WWDWWLDWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
06/10	Workington England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-2	3	3	D
12/09	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-4	2	5	L
01/09	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
29/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
25/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
22/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	5-0	–	–	W
18/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
15/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
08/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W

Lancaster City

WLLDWWLLWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
03/10	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/09	Whitby England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	4	W
12/09	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	8	0	L
31/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
28/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	2-1	4	5	W
25/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
22/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
18/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	1-3	–	–	L
15/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Warrington Town vs Lancaster City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Warrington Town win (44%). Probabilities: Warrington Town 44%, draw 25%, Lancaster City 31%.

How many goals are expected in Warrington Town vs Lancaster City?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Warrington Town 1.78 · Lancaster City 1.46), with a 54% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Warrington Town vs Lancaster City?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.