Football · England Northern Premier League · 03/10, 16:00

Prediction: Redcar Athletic vs Alfreton Town

Team pages: Redcar Athletic · Alfreton Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Redcar Athletic1.51

Alfreton Town1.02

1X2

49% 26% 25%

Redcar Athletic Draw Alfreton Town

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 54% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Redcar Athletic 6-4-0 (W-D-L)

DWDWWDWWWD

Alfreton Town 5-0-5 (W-D-L)

LWWLLWLWLW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Redcar Athletic 1588 · Alfreton Town 1503

	Redcar Athletic	Draw	Alfreton Town
Our model	48%	28%	24%
Market	50%	24%	26%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · -0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 51%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Redcar Athletic (rating 1588 vs 1503).
Cards-heavy: 7.2 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Redcar Athletic	Alfreton Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.9 / 0.7	1.6 / 1
Goals for / against (HT)	0.7 / 0.5	1 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	33/50/17%	57/29/14%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.3 / 3.3	2.4 / 4.3
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.5 / 0.2	4.7 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

11.80

X3.70

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.85

2 (+0.5)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.88

Under 2.751.93

Diff.: 0.15 · xG: 2.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:26

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.80 → 1.80	Bet365 1.80
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
13:45 +41’	1.80	3.70	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	10	7	2	1	25	6	23
2	Avro FC	9	7	1	1	28	16	22
3	Redcar Athletic	10	6	4	0	19	7	22
4	Guiseley	10	6	1	3	22	11	19
5	Workington	10	6	1	3	20	16	19
6	Warrington Town	9	5	2	2	18	14	17
7	Bury	9	5	1	3	19	8	16
8	Curzon Ashton	9	5	1	3	18	10	16
9	Warrington Rylands	10	5	1	4	13	13	16
10	Alfreton Town	10	5	0	5	16	10	15
11	Gainsborough	9	4	1	4	14	12	13
12	Lancaster City	10	4	1	5	11	18	13
13	Whitby	10	4	0	6	15	26	12
14	Ashton Utd	9	3	2	4	10	9	11
15	Hyde Utd	10	3	2	5	11	19	11
16	Emley AFC	10	2	4	4	9	18	10
17	Leek Town	10	2	3	5	19	20	9
18	Bamber Bridge	10	2	3	5	14	27	9
19	Stockton Town	10	2	2	6	13	20	8
20	Ilkeston	10	2	1	7	6	22	7
21	Quorn	9	1	3	5	12	23	6
22	FC United of Manchester	9	1	2	6	12	19	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Redcar Athletic	Alfreton Town
Cleethorpes Town	1-1 D	1-2 L
Stockton Town	2-0 W	0-2 L
Warrington Rylands	5-0 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 0 L	0 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Redcar Athletic (3 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Redcar Athletic

DWDWWDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/09	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
12/09	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-2	3-2	2	5	W
31/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
29/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	–	3-2	–	–	W
25/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	4	2	D
22/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-0	5-0	4	1	W
18/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	1-1	3-1	2	2	W
15/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-1	5	4	D
11/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	1-0	–	–	W
08/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	–	0-0	–	–	D

Alfreton Town

LWWLLWLWLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
29/09	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	4	6	W
12/09	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	1	L
31/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-1	6	4	W
29/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-2	5	6	L
25/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	2-0	4-0	2	5	W
22/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-2	2	7	L
18/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	5	6	L
15/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
11/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
08/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Redcar Athletic vs Alfreton Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Redcar Athletic win (49%). Probabilities: Redcar Athletic 49%, draw 26%, Alfreton Town 25%.

How many goals are expected in Redcar Athletic vs Alfreton Town?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Redcar Athletic 1.51 · Alfreton Town 1.02), with a 55% chance of under 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Redcar Athletic vs Alfreton Town?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.