Football · England Northern Premier League · 19/09, 16:00

Prediction: Stockton Town vs Bamber Bridge

Team pages: Stockton Town · Bamber Bridge

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.24Total

Stockton Town1.87

Bamber Bridge1.37

1X2

48% 24% 27%

Stockton Town Draw Bamber Bridge

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 57%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Stockton Town 1-2-7 (W-D-L)

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Bamber Bridge 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LLLWDLDDLW

Head-to-head

Stockton Town 1–3–0 Bamber Bridge (4 last)

Bamber Bridge2-2Stockton Town
Stockton Town2-2Bamber Bridge
Stockton Town2-2Bamber Bridge
Bamber Bridge1-5Stockton Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Stockton Town 1425 · Bamber Bridge 1444

	Stockton Town	Draw	Bamber Bridge
Our model	48%	25%	27%
Market	49%	24%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 3.24 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Stockton Town	Bamber Bridge
Goals for / against (FT)	0.8 / 2	1.2 / 2.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.9	0.4 / 1.1
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/43/43%	0/50/50%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 5.7	1.3 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3 / 0.4	3.3 / 0.5

Odds Bet365

11.85

X3.70

23.30

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.90

2 (+0.5)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.80

Under 2.752.00

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.2

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 17:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 1.85▼	Bet365 1.85
X	3.60 → 3.70▲	Pinn 3.72
2	2.90 → 3.30▲	Pinn 3.81 ★

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.4% Pinnacle margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
13:04 +11’	2.05	3.60	2.90
17:25 +3’	1.85▼	3.70▲	3.30▲

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

Time*	1	X	2
16:16 +72’	1.74	3.73	3.83
12:04 +91’	1.74▲	3.72▼	3.81▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Stockton Town 1–3–0 Bamber Bridge

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 England Northern Premier League	Bamber Bridge	2-2	Stockton Town
27/09/25 England Northern Premier League	Stockton Town	2-2	Bamber Bridge
18/01/25 England Northern Premier League	Stockton Town	2-2 HT 0-1	Bamber Bridge
15/10/24 England Northern Premier League	Bamber Bridge	1-5 HT 1-3	Stockton Town

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	9	7	1	1	24	5	22
2	Avro FC	9	7	1	1	28	16	22
3	Redcar Athletic	9	6	3	0	18	6	21
4	Guiseley	9	6	1	2	22	10	19
5	Warrington Town	9	5	2	2	18	14	17
6	Bury	9	5	1	3	19	8	16
7	Curzon Ashton	9	5	1	3	18	10	16
8	Workington	9	5	1	3	17	15	16
9	Gainsborough	9	4	1	4	14	12	13
10	Warrington Rylands	9	4	1	4	12	13	13
11	Alfreton Town	9	4	0	5	15	10	12
12	Whitby	9	4	0	5	14	24	12
13	Ashton Utd	9	3	2	4	10	9	11
14	Hyde Utd	9	3	2	4	10	17	11
15	Emley AFC	9	2	4	3	8	15	10
16	Lancaster City	9	3	1	5	9	17	10
17	Bamber Bridge	9	2	3	4	12	22	9
18	Ilkeston	9	2	1	6	6	21	7
19	Leek Town	9	1	3	5	17	19	6
20	Quorn	9	1	3	5	12	23	6
21	FC United of Manchester	9	1	2	6	12	19	5
22	Stockton Town	9	1	2	6	8	18	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Stockton Town	Bamber Bridge
Warrington Rylands	1-1 D	1-3 L
Avro FC	3-5 L	1-6 L
Alfreton Town	2-0 W	1-0 W
Leek Town	1-1 D	1-4 L
Ashton Utd	0-1 L	1-0 W
Record vs common	1 W 2 D 2 L	2 W 0 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Stockton Town (4 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Stockton Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-1	4	3	D
31/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
29/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	1-3	3-5	2	2	L
25/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-3	8	1	L
22/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-0	9	7	W
18/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L
15/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
08/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
28/04	Hednesford England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-2	6	3	L

Bamber Bridge

LLLWDLDDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
12/09	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	8	1	W
31/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-3	2	7	L
29/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	2-2	4-4	6	6	D
25/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	5	4	D
22/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L
18/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	1	0	D
15/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	1	5	W
11/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	0-2	1-6	2	3	L
08/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-2	4	4	L
25/04	Prescot Cables England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Stockton Town vs Bamber Bridge?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Stockton Town win (48%). Probabilities: Stockton Town 48%, draw 24%, Bamber Bridge 27%.

How many goals are expected in Stockton Town vs Bamber Bridge?

The model expects 3.24 goals (Stockton Town 1.87 · Bamber Bridge 1.37), with a 55% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Stockton Town vs Bamber Bridge?

The model gives a 57% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.