Football · England Northern Premier League · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: FC United of Manchester vs Warrington Town

Team pages: FC United of Manchester · Warrington Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.44Total

FC United of Manchester1.57

Warrington Town1.87

1X2

31% 25% 44%

FC United of Manchester Draw Warrington Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

FC United of Manchester 0-2-8 (W-D-L)

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Warrington Town 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

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Head-to-head

FC United of Manchester 2–2–2 Warrington Town (6 last)

FC United of Manchester2-2Warrington Town
Warrington Town3-0FC United of Manchester
FC United of Manchester2-1Warrington Town
FC United of Manchester1-1Warrington Town
Warrington Town0-1FC United of Manchester
FC United of Manchester0-1Warrington Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · FC United of Manchester 1398 · Warrington Town 1550

	FC United of Manchester	Draw	Warrington Town
Our model	32%	24%	44%
Market	31%	25%	44%

Estimated total (ours) 3.44 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Warrington Town (rating 1398 vs 1550).
Cards-heavy: 6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	FC United of Manchester	Warrington Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.2 / 2.4	1.9 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.6 / 0.7	1 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/43/29%	50/33/17%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.1 / 4.6	2.5 / 4.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	2.7 / 0.1	3.3 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.88

X3.60

22.05

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.93

2 (-0.25)1.88

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.85

Under 2.751.95

Diff.: 0.75 · xG: 3.5

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:13

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.88 → 2.88	Bet365 2.88
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.3%

Time*	1	X	2
13:46 +27’	2.88	3.60	2.05

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · FC United of Manchester 2–2–2 Warrington Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
17/01/26 England Northern Premier League	FC United of Manchester	2-2 HT 0-1	Warrington Town
11/11/25 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Town	3-0 HT 2-0	FC United of Manchester
18/07/23 Club Friendly List	FC United of Manchester	2-1 HT 1-1	Warrington Town
28/01/23 England Northern Premier League	FC United of Manchester	1-1 HT 1-0	Warrington Town
24/09/22 England Northern Premier League	Warrington Town	0-1	FC United of Manchester
15/02/22 England Northern Premier League	FC United of Manchester	0-1 HT 0-0	Warrington Town

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	8	6	1	1	23	5	19
2	Avro FC	8	6	1	1	26	16	19
3	Redcar Athletic	8	5	3	0	15	4	18
4	Warrington Town	8	5	2	1	17	10	17
5	Guiseley	8	5	1	2	18	9	16
6	Bury	8	4	1	3	15	8	13
7	Curzon Ashton	8	4	1	3	16	10	13
8	Gainsborough	8	4	1	3	14	10	13
9	Workington	8	4	1	3	14	14	13
10	Alfreton Town	8	4	0	4	15	9	12
11	Warrington Rylands	8	4	0	4	11	12	12
12	Ashton Utd	8	3	2	3	10	8	11
13	Hyde Utd	8	3	2	3	9	14	11
14	Emley AFC	8	2	4	2	8	11	10
15	Lancaster City	8	3	1	4	9	15	10
16	Whitby	8	3	0	5	11	23	9
17	Ilkeston	8	2	1	5	5	18	7
18	Leek Town	8	1	3	4	15	16	6
19	Quorn	8	1	3	4	11	19	6
20	Bamber Bridge	8	1	3	4	11	22	6
21	Stockton Town	8	1	1	6	7	17	4
22	FC United of Manchester	8	0	2	6	8	18	2

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	FC United of Manchester	Warrington Town
Workington	1-2 L	2-3 L
Hyde Utd	0-1 L	3-0 W
Leek Town	1-1 D	2-1 W
Ilkeston	2-3 L	2-1 W
Record vs common	0 W 1 D 3 L	3 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Warrington Town (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

FC United of Manchester

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	1-1	3-4	4	2	L
29/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	2-3	–	–	L
25/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	3	4	D
22/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-2	6	1	L
18/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	2	2	L
15/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	0-2	0-3	5	3	L
11/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	6	6	D
08/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
28/04	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-3	6	2	L
25/04	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	–	2-3	–	–	L

Warrington Town

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
01/09	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-1	8	3	W
29/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	6	3	D
25/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-4	4	3	L
22/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	5-0	–	–	W
18/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
15/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	4	0	W
08/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
25/04	Morpeth Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
18/04	Workington England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-3	1	9	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in FC United of Manchester vs Warrington Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Warrington Town win (44%). Probabilities: FC United of Manchester 31%, draw 25%, Warrington Town 44%.

How many goals are expected in FC United of Manchester vs Warrington Town?

The model expects 3.44 goals (FC United of Manchester 1.57 · Warrington Town 1.87), with a 56% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in FC United of Manchester vs Warrington Town?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.