Football · England Northern Premier League · 12/09, 16:00
Prediction: Ashton Utd vs Cleethorpes Town
Team pages: Ashton Utd · Cleethorpes Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.95Total
Ashton Utd1.33
Cleethorpes Town1.62
1X2
Ashton Utd
Draw
Cleethorpes Town
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 56%
Both teams to score 56%
Most likely score
1-1 12%
Recent form · 10 last
Ashton Utd
3-4-3 (W-D-L)
Cleethorpes Town
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ashton Utd
0–1–1
Cleethorpes Town
(2 last)
- Cleethorpes Town2-2Ashton Utd
- Ashton Utd0-4Cleethorpes Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ashton Utd 1492 · Cleethorpes Town 1538
| Ashton Utd | Draw | Cleethorpes Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 30% | 27% | 43% |
| Market | 31% | 26% | 44% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.95 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.2
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 56%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cleethorpes Town (rating 1492 vs 1538).
- Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ashton Utd | Cleethorpes Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.4 / 1.2 | 2.3 / 0.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.4 / 0.7 | 0.8 / 0.3 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 29/29/43% | 38/50/13% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.4 / 5 | 2.3 / 5.4 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 4.6 / 0.3 | 2.8 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ashton Utd 0–1–1 Cleethorpes Town
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 14/03/26 England Northern Premier League | Cleethorpes Town | 2-2 | Ashton Utd |
| 01/11/25 England Northern Premier League | Ashton Utd | 0-4 HT 0-2 | Cleethorpes Town |
Standings · England Northern Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 23 | 5 | 19 |
| 2 | Avro FC | 8 | 6 | 1 | 1 | 26 | 16 | 19 |
| 3 | Redcar Athletic | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | 15 | 4 | 18 |
| 4 | Warrington Town | 8 | 5 | 2 | 1 | 17 | 10 | 17 |
| 5 | Guiseley | 8 | 5 | 1 | 2 | 18 | 9 | 16 |
| 6 | Bury | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 15 | 8 | 13 |
| 7 | Curzon Ashton | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 16 | 10 | 13 |
| 8 | Gainsborough | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 10 | 13 |
| 9 | Workington | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | 14 | 14 | 13 |
| 10 | Alfreton Town | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 15 | 9 | 12 |
| 11 | Warrington Rylands | 8 | 4 | 0 | 4 | 11 | 12 | 12 |
| 12 | Ashton Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 10 | 8 | 11 |
| 13 | Hyde Utd | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | 9 | 14 | 11 |
| 14 | Emley AFC | 8 | 2 | 4 | 2 | 8 | 11 | 10 |
| 15 | Lancaster City | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 9 | 15 | 10 |
| 16 | Whitby | 8 | 3 | 0 | 5 | 11 | 23 | 9 |
| 17 | Ilkeston | 8 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 18 | 7 |
| 18 | Leek Town | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 15 | 16 | 6 |
| 19 | Quorn | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 19 | 6 |
| 20 | Bamber Bridge | 8 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 11 | 22 | 6 |
| 21 | Stockton Town | 8 | 1 | 1 | 6 | 7 | 17 | 4 |
| 22 | FC United of Manchester | 8 | 0 | 2 | 6 | 8 | 18 | 2 |
Common opponents 6 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Ashton Utd | Cleethorpes Town |
|---|---|---|
| Curzon Ashton | 0-2 L | 1-3 L |
| Gainsborough | 1-2 L | 3-0 W |
| Ilkeston | 1-1 D | 3-0 W |
| Whitby | 2-0 W | 6-0 W |
| Bamber Bridge | 0-1 L | 2-0 W |
| Hednesford | 3-3 D | 0-1 L |
| Record vs common | 1 W 2 D 3 L | 4 W 0 D 2 L |
Better against common opponents: Cleethorpes Town (4 of 6 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ashton Utd
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League |
0-2 | 0-2 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 28/08 | Gainsborough England Northern Premier League |
0-2 | 1-2 | 10 | 6 | L |
| 25/08 | Ilkeston England Northern Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 5 | 4 | D |
| 22/08 | Emley AFC England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 18/08 | Whitby England Northern Premier League |
2-0 | 2-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 15/08 | Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 5 | L |
| 11/08 | Stockton Town England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 3 | 7 | W |
| 08/08 | Lancaster City England Northern Premier League |
– | 4-1 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Hednesford England Northern Premier League |
– | 3-3 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Guiseley England Northern Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 5 | D |
Cleethorpes Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 31/08 | Gainsborough England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 3-0 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 28/08 | Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League |
0-1 | 1-3 | 6 | 2 | L |
| 25/08 | Whitby England Northern Premier League |
3-0 | 6-0 | 6 | 2 | W |
| 22/08 | Ilkeston England Northern Premier League |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 18/08 | Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League |
1-1 | 2-1 | 4 | 6 | W |
| 15/08 | Warrington Town England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 11/08 | Quorn England Northern Premier League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 08/08 | Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 25/04 | Whitby England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Hednesford England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ashton Utd vs Cleethorpes Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Cleethorpes Town win (43%). Probabilities: Ashton Utd 31%, draw 26%, Cleethorpes Town 43%.
How many goals are expected in Ashton Utd vs Cleethorpes Town?
The model expects 2.95 goals (Ashton Utd 1.33 · Cleethorpes Town 1.62), with a 51% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Ashton Utd vs Cleethorpes Town?
The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.