Football · England Northern Premier League · 12/09, 16:00

Prediction: Workington vs Ilkeston

Team pages: Workington · Ilkeston

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.15Total

Workington1.9

Ilkeston1.25

1X2

52% 24% 24%

Workington Draw Ilkeston

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 56%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Workington 5-1-4 (W-D-L)

WLLLDLWWWW

Ilkeston 3-2-5 (W-D-L)

DWWWLLLDLL

Head-to-head

Workington 3–3 Ilkeston (6 last)

Workington1-0Ilkeston
Ilkeston3-2Workington
Ilkeston1-0Workington
Workington2-1Ilkeston
Workington4-1Ilkeston
Ilkeston6-1Workington

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Workington 1542 · Ilkeston 1449

	Workington	Draw	Ilkeston
Our model	52%	24%	24%
Market	52%	24%	24%

Estimated total (ours) 3.15 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.4

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Workington (rating 1542 vs 1449).
High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.1 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Workington	Ilkeston
Goals for / against (FT)	1.7 / 1.7	0.8 / 2
Goals for / against (HT)	0.5 / 0.8	0.3 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	25/50/25%	14/43/43%
Corners (HT / FT)	3.5 / 7	1.7 / 3.6
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.5 / 0	2.6 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

11.73

X3.70

23.70

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.75)2.00

2 (+0.75)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.98

Under 2.751.82

Diff.: 0.35 · xG: 3.1

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:28

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.73 → 1.73	Bet365 1.73
X	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70
2	3.70 → 3.70	Bet365 3.70

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 12%

Time*	1	X	2
16:22 +6’	1.73	3.70	3.70

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Workington 3–0–3 Ilkeston

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 England Northern Premier League	Workington	1-0	Ilkeston
27/09/25 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	3-2 HT 3-2	Workington
08/02/25 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	1-0	Workington
12/10/24 England Northern Premier League	Workington	2-1	Ilkeston
23/12/23 England Northern Premier League	Workington	4-1 HT 1-1	Ilkeston
19/08/23 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	6-1	Workington

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	8	6	1	1	23	5	19
2	Avro FC	8	6	1	1	26	16	19
3	Redcar Athletic	8	5	3	0	15	4	18
4	Warrington Town	8	5	2	1	17	10	17
5	Guiseley	8	5	1	2	18	9	16
6	Bury	8	4	1	3	15	8	13
7	Curzon Ashton	8	4	1	3	16	10	13
8	Gainsborough	8	4	1	3	14	10	13
9	Workington	8	4	1	3	14	14	13
10	Alfreton Town	8	4	0	4	15	9	12
11	Warrington Rylands	8	4	0	4	11	12	12
12	Ashton Utd	8	3	2	3	10	8	11
13	Hyde Utd	8	3	2	3	9	14	11
14	Emley AFC	8	2	4	2	8	11	10
15	Lancaster City	8	3	1	4	9	15	10
16	Whitby	8	3	0	5	11	23	9
17	Ilkeston	8	2	1	5	5	18	7
18	Leek Town	8	1	3	4	15	16	6
19	Quorn	8	1	3	4	11	19	6
20	Bamber Bridge	8	1	3	4	11	22	6
21	Stockton Town	8	1	1	6	7	17	4
22	FC United of Manchester	8	0	2	6	8	18	2

Common opponents 2 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Workington	Ilkeston
FC United of Manchester	2-1 W	3-2 W
Warrington Town	3-2 W	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 0 D 0 L	1 W 0 D 1 L

Better against common opponents: Workington (1 of 2 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Workington

WLLLDLWWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
29/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-2	6	2	W
25/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	–	3-2	–	–	W
22/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-1	8	1	W
19/08	Avro FC England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-4	9	2	L
15/08	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
08/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
25/04	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-1	–	–	L
18/04	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	0-2	3-2	5	9	W

Ilkeston

DWWWLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
31/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	3	1	L
29/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-4	0-7	0	3	L
25/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	2	4	D
22/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
18/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
15/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
08/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
25/04	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	–	3-2	–	–	W
18/04	Stocksbridge PS England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	8	7	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Workington vs Ilkeston?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Workington win (52%). Probabilities: Workington 52%, draw 24%, Ilkeston 24%.

How many goals are expected in Workington vs Ilkeston?

The model expects 3.15 goals (Workington 1.9 · Ilkeston 1.25), with a 51% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Workington vs Ilkeston?

The model gives a 56% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.