Football · England Northern Premier League · 18/08, 20:45
Prediction: Cleethorpes Town vs Alfreton Town
Team pages: Cleethorpes Town · Alfreton Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.72Total
Cleethorpes Town1.61
Alfreton Town1.1
1X2
Cleethorpes Town
Draw
Alfreton Town
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Cleethorpes Town
4-4-2 (W-D-L)
Alfreton Town
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Cleethorpes Town
1–1
Alfreton Town
(2 last)
- Cleethorpes Town2-4Alfreton Town
- Cleethorpes Town1-0Alfreton Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Cleethorpes Town 1527 · Alfreton Town 1439
| Cleethorpes Town | Draw | Alfreton Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 48% | 27% | 25% |
| Market | 50% | 24% | 26% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.72 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 51%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Cleethorpes Town (rating 1527 vs 1439).
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Cleethorpes Town | Alfreton Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 0.6 | 0.9 / 1.9 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.1 | 0.4 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/67/0% | 33/22/44% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 3 / 6.5 | 1.7 / 3.8 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.7 / 0 | 1.8 / 0.1 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Cleethorpes Town 1–0–1 Alfreton Town
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 16/09/23 England FA Cup Qualification | Cleethorpes Town | 2-4 HT 1-2 | Alfreton Town |
| 18/09/21 England FA Cup Qualification | Cleethorpes Town | 1-0 | Alfreton Town |
Standings · England Northern Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 |
| 2 | Warrington Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Bury | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Gainsborough | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Avro FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Alfreton Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Ashton Utd | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Whitby | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Ilkeston | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 10 | Redcar Athletic | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Guiseley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Emley AFC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Hyde Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Warrington Rylands | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Curzon Ashton | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 16 | Lancaster City | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 17 | Bamber Bridge | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
| 18 | Leek Town | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 19 | Stockton Town | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 20 | Workington | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 21 | Quorn | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| 22 | FC United of Manchester | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Cleethorpes Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Warrington Town England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 11/08 | Quorn England Northern Premier League |
1-0 | 5-0 | 8 | 1 | W |
| 08/08 | Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League |
1-0 | 2-0 | 5 | 4 | W |
| 25/07 | Grimsby Borough UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 2-2 | 5 | 0 | D |
| 21/07 | Club Thorne Colliery Club Friendly List |
4-0 | 6-1 | – | – | W |
| 18/07 | Harrogate Town UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | Grimsby Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 04/07 | Beverley Town Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Whitby England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 2 | D |
| 18/04 | Hednesford England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 3 | 3 | L |
Alfreton Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Avro FC England Northern Premier League |
– | 3-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/08 | Gainsborough England Northern Premier League |
1-0 | 2-1 | 4 | 7 | W |
| 08/08 | Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 4 | 2 | L |
| 28/07 | Mansfield UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-4 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 21/07 | Rotherham UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 0-1 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 17/07 | Derby UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-2 | 3 | 0 | L |
| 14/07 | Boston Utd UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-2 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 11/07 | Burton Albion UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-0 | 2 | 1 | D |
| 04/07 | Notts County UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 0-5 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 25/04 | Curzon Ashton England National League North |
2-0 | 3-3 | 3 | 7 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Cleethorpes Town vs Alfreton Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Cleethorpes Town win (49%). Probabilities: Cleethorpes Town 49%, draw 25%, Alfreton Town 26%.
How many goals are expected in Cleethorpes Town vs Alfreton Town?
The model expects 2.72 goals (Cleethorpes Town 1.61 · Alfreton Town 1.1), with a 53% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Cleethorpes Town vs Alfreton Town?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.