Football · England Northern Premier League · 28/08, 20:45

Prediction: Guiseley vs Lancaster City

Team pages: Guiseley · Lancaster City

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.75Total

Guiseley1.58

Lancaster City1.17

1X2

46% 27% 27%

Guiseley Draw Lancaster City

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 50% Both teams to score 54%

Most likely score

1-1 13%

Recent form · 10 last

Guiseley 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DLLDLWDWWW

Lancaster City 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

DWDWLWLLDW

Head-to-head

Guiseley 0–4–2 Lancaster City (6 last)

Guiseley0-0Lancaster City
Lancaster City0-0Guiseley
Guiseley1-2Lancaster City
Lancaster City1-1Guiseley
Guiseley2-3Lancaster City
Lancaster City2-2Guiseley

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guiseley 1552 · Lancaster City 1525

	Guiseley	Draw	Lancaster City
Our model	46%	27%	27%
Market	46%	26%	28%

Estimated total (ours) 2.75 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 57%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Lancaster City: 2-4-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guiseley	Lancaster City
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.6	1.4 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.7	0.8 / 0.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	43/57/0%	25/75/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.6 / 6.6	0.8 / 2.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	2 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.95

X3.40

23.25

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)2.00

2 (+0.5)1.80

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.95

Under 2.51.85

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.95 → 1.95	Bet365 1.95
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.25 → 3.25	Bet365 3.25

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
16:03 +16’	1.95	3.40	3.25

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guiseley 0–4–2 Lancaster City

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/02/26 England Northern Premier League	Guiseley	0-0	Lancaster City
27/09/25 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	0-0	Guiseley
01/02/25 England Northern Premier League	Guiseley	1-2	Lancaster City
15/10/24 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	1-1 HT 1-0	Guiseley
30/03/24 England Northern Premier League	Guiseley	2-3 HT 1-1	Lancaster City
26/08/23 England Northern Premier League	Lancaster City	2-2	Guiseley

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	6	5	1	0	19	2	16
2	Guiseley	6	4	1	1	13	7	13
2	Warrington Town	6	4	1	1	13	7	13
4	Redcar Athletic	6	3	3	0	10	2	12
5	Avro FC	5	4	0	1	13	6	12
6	Ashton Utd	6	3	2	1	9	4	11
7	Gainsborough	6	3	1	2	12	6	10
8	Bury	6	3	1	2	7	6	10
9	Alfreton Town	6	3	0	3	10	6	9
10	Emley AFC	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
11	Curzon Ashton	6	2	1	3	11	9	7
12	Workington	6	2	1	3	8	12	7
13	Lancaster City	6	2	1	3	7	11	7
14	Ilkeston	6	2	1	3	5	9	7
15	Hyde Utd	6	2	1	3	3	9	7
16	Warrington Rylands	6	2	0	4	6	10	6
17	Whitby	6	2	0	4	4	16	6
18	Leek Town	5	1	2	2	8	7	5
19	Bamber Bridge	6	1	2	3	6	15	5
20	Stockton Town	6	1	1	4	4	10	4
21	Quorn	6	0	3	3	6	13	3
22	FC United of Manchester	6	0	2	4	3	11	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guiseley	Lancaster City
Stockton Town	3-0 W	1-1 D
Bury	3-2 W	1-0 W
Ashton Utd	1-1 D	1-4 L
Gainsborough	1-2 L	3-0 W
Hyde Utd	1-1 D	1-2 L
Record vs common	2 W 2 D 1 L	2 W 1 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Guiseley (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guiseley

DLLDLWDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	3-0	10	1	W
22/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-1	4	7	W
18/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	2-2	3-2	5	4	W
15/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
08/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
18/04	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
11/04	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	–	2-5	–	–	L
06/04	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	9	4	L
04/04	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-1	7	3	D

Lancaster City

DWDWLWLLDW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-0	2	3	W
22/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
18/08	Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-3	1	2	L
15/08	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
11/08	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	2	1	W
08/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L
25/04	Stocksbridge PS England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
18/04	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/04	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	3-0	–	–	W
06/04	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-1	5	2	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guiseley vs Lancaster City?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guiseley win (46%). Probabilities: Guiseley 46%, draw 27%, Lancaster City 27%.

How many goals are expected in Guiseley vs Lancaster City?

The model expects 2.75 goals (Guiseley 1.58 · Lancaster City 1.17), with a 50% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Guiseley vs Lancaster City?

The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.