Football · England Northern Premier League · 28/08, 20:45

Prediction: Ashton Utd vs Gainsborough

Team pages: Ashton Utd · Gainsborough

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.53Total

Ashton Utd1.39

Gainsborough1.14

1X2

42% 28% 30%

Ashton Utd Draw Gainsborough

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 53% Both teams to score 53%

Most likely score

1-1 14%

Recent form · 10 last

Ashton Utd 4-4-2 (W-D-L)

LWDDWWLWDD

Gainsborough 4-1-5 (W-D-L)

WLLLWLWWLD

Head-to-head

Ashton Utd 3–1–2 Gainsborough (6 last)

Ashton Utd0-3Gainsborough
Gainsborough0-3Ashton Utd
Ashton Utd0-2Gainsborough
Gainsborough0-1Ashton Utd
Ashton Utd2-0Gainsborough
Gainsborough2-2Ashton Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ashton Utd 1524 · Gainsborough 1504

	Ashton Utd	Draw	Gainsborough
Our model	41%	29%	30%
Market	43%	26%	31%

Estimated total (ours) 2.53 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 56%model estimate

Match keys

H2H favours Ashton Utd: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 6.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ashton Utd	Gainsborough
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 1	1.6 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 0.3	0.6 / 0.9
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/43/29%	14/57/29%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 4.7	1.6 / 5.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.3	2.3 / 0.3

Odds Bet365

12.10

X3.40

22.90

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.90

2 (+0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.98

Under 2.51.82

Diff.: 0.3 · xG: 2.8

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 16:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	2.90 → 2.90	Bet365 2.90

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
15:50 +28’	2.10	3.40	2.90

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ashton Utd 3–1–2 Gainsborough

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Date	Home	Score	Away
03/02/26 England Northern Premier League	Ashton Utd	0-3 HT 0-2	Gainsborough
09/08/25 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	0-3 HT 0-1	Ashton Utd
12/04/25 England Northern Premier League	Ashton Utd	0-2 HT 0-1	Gainsborough
17/08/24 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	0-1 HT 0-1	Ashton Utd
16/03/24 England Northern Premier League	Ashton Utd	2-0 HT 2-0	Gainsborough
24/10/23 England Northern Premier League	Gainsborough	2-2 HT 1-1	Ashton Utd

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	6	5	1	0	19	2	16
2	Guiseley	6	4	1	1	13	7	13
2	Warrington Town	6	4	1	1	13	7	13
4	Redcar Athletic	6	3	3	0	10	2	12
5	Avro FC	5	4	0	1	13	6	12
6	Ashton Utd	6	3	2	1	9	4	11
7	Gainsborough	6	3	1	2	12	6	10
8	Bury	6	3	1	2	7	6	10
9	Alfreton Town	6	3	0	3	10	6	9
10	Emley AFC	6	2	3	1	6	5	9
11	Curzon Ashton	6	2	1	3	11	9	7
12	Workington	6	2	1	3	8	12	7
13	Lancaster City	6	2	1	3	7	11	7
14	Ilkeston	6	2	1	3	5	9	7
15	Hyde Utd	6	2	1	3	3	9	7
16	Warrington Rylands	6	2	0	4	6	10	6
17	Whitby	6	2	0	4	4	16	6
18	Leek Town	5	1	2	2	8	7	5
19	Bamber Bridge	6	1	2	3	6	15	5
20	Stockton Town	6	1	1	4	4	10	4
21	Quorn	6	0	3	3	6	13	3
22	FC United of Manchester	6	0	2	4	3	11	2

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ashton Utd	Gainsborough
Stockton Town	1-0 W	4-1 W
Lancaster City	4-1 W	0-3 L
Guiseley	1-1 D	2-1 W
Workington	2-1 W	2-0 W
Hyde Utd	0-1 L	1-3 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Gainsborough (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ashton Utd

LWDDWWLWDD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	5	4	D
22/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
15/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
11/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
08/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
25/04	Hednesford England Northern Premier League	–	3-3	–	–	D
18/04	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
11/04	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
06/04	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	4	L

Gainsborough

WLLLWLWWLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
25/08	Quorn England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-2	7	0	D
22/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	1	L
18/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
15/08	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	2-0	3-0	2	3	W
11/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-2	2	7	L
08/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
25/04	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-3	1-3	7	1	L
18/04	Prescot Cables England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-2	11	2	L
11/04	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
06/04	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	1-1	2-1	6	4	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ashton Utd vs Gainsborough?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ashton Utd win (42%). Probabilities: Ashton Utd 42%, draw 28%, Gainsborough 30%.

How many goals are expected in Ashton Utd vs Gainsborough?

The model expects 2.53 goals (Ashton Utd 1.39 · Gainsborough 1.14), with a 53% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ashton Utd vs Gainsborough?

The model gives a 53% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.