Football · England Northern Premier League · 25/08, 20:45

Prediction: Ashton Utd vs Ilkeston

Team pages: Ashton Utd · Ilkeston

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.46Total

Ashton Utd1.45

Ilkeston1.01

1X2

47% 27% 26%

Ashton Utd Draw Ilkeston

Markets

Under 2.5 goals 52% Both teams to score 52%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Ashton Utd 5-3-2 (W-D-L)

WLWDDWWLWD

Ilkeston 4-2-4 (W-D-L)

DLWDWWWLLL

Head-to-head

Ashton Utd 2–3–1 Ilkeston (6 last)

Ashton Utd0-0Ilkeston
Ilkeston0-2Ashton Utd
Ashton Utd2-1Ilkeston
Ilkeston2-2Ashton Utd
Ashton Utd1-2Ilkeston
Ilkeston2-2Ashton Utd

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Ashton Utd 1546 · Ilkeston 1475

	Ashton Utd	Draw	Ilkeston
Our model	46%	29%	25%
Market	48%	26%	27%

Estimated total (ours) 2.46 goals · Bet365 line 2.5

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 65%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Ashton Utd (rating 1546 vs 1475).
H2H favours Ashton Utd: 2-3-1.
High corners: 11.2 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 6.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Ashton Utd	Ilkeston
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1	1 / 1.3
Goals for / against (HT)	0.3 / 0.3	0.3 / 0.3
Half-time result (W/D/L)	14/57/29%	17/50/33%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.7 / 5.6	2.7 / 5.7
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.7 / 0.3	2.8 / 0.7

Odds Bet365

11.90

X3.50

23.40

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.5)1.95

2 (+0.5)1.85

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.85

Under 2.51.95

Diff.: 0.05 · xG: 2.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.90 → 1.90	Bet365 1.90
X	3.50 → 3.50	Bet365 3.50
2	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.6%

Time*	1	X	2
14:13 +5’	1.90	3.50	3.40

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Ashton Utd 2–3–1 Ilkeston

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Date	Home	Score	Away
21/03/26 England Northern Premier League	Ashton Utd	0-0 HT 0-0	Ilkeston
08/11/25 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	0-2 HT 0-0	Ashton Utd
01/02/25 England Northern Premier League	Ashton Utd	2-1 HT 0-0	Ilkeston
28/09/24 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	2-2 HT 2-1	Ashton Utd
13/04/24 England Northern Premier League	Ashton Utd	1-2 HT 0-1	Ilkeston
21/11/23 England Northern Premier League	Ilkeston	2-2 HT 2-2	Ashton Utd

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	5	4	1	0	13	2	13
2	Warrington Town	5	4	1	0	13	3	13
3	Avro FC	5	4	0	1	13	6	12
4	Redcar Athletic	5	3	2	0	10	2	11
5	Ashton Utd	5	3	1	1	8	3	10
6	Guiseley	5	3	1	1	10	7	10
7	Bury	5	3	1	1	7	5	10
8	Gainsborough	5	3	0	2	10	4	9
9	Emley AFC	5	2	2	1	6	5	8
10	Hyde Utd	5	2	1	2	3	5	7
11	Alfreton Town	5	2	0	3	6	6	6
12	Warrington Rylands	5	2	0	3	4	7	6
13	Ilkeston	5	2	0	3	4	8	6
14	Whitby	5	2	0	3	4	10	6
15	Leek Town	5	1	2	2	8	7	5
16	Curzon Ashton	5	1	1	3	7	9	4
17	Stockton Town	5	1	1	3	4	7	4
18	Lancaster City	5	1	1	3	6	11	4
19	Workington	5	1	1	3	5	10	4
20	Bamber Bridge	5	1	1	3	5	14	4
21	Quorn	5	0	2	3	4	11	2
22	FC United of Manchester	5	0	1	4	2	10	1

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Ashton Utd	Ilkeston
Emley AFC	1-1 D	2-1 W
Whitby	2-0 W	0-2 L
Bamber Bridge	0-1 L	2-0 W
Stockton Town	1-0 W	1-0 W
Rushall Olympic	2-1 W	0-2 L
Record vs common	3 W 1 D 1 L	3 W 0 D 2 L

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Ashton Utd

WLWDDWWLWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
18/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-0	6	2	W
15/08	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	3	5	L
11/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	3	7	W
08/08	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	4-1	–	–	W
25/04	Hednesford England Northern Premier League	–	3-3	–	–	D
18/04	Guiseley England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	5	D
11/04	Workington England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-1	8	3	W
06/04	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-1	5	4	L
03/04	Rushall Olympic England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-1	11	2	W

Ilkeston

DLWDWWWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League	–	0-3	–	–	L
18/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-2	5	3	L
15/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	–	0-2	–	–	L
11/08	Emley AFC England Northern Premier League	2-0	2-1	3	2	W
08/08	Stockton Town England Northern Premier League	0-0	1-0	4	1	W
25/04	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	–	3-2	–	–	W
18/04	Stocksbridge PS England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-0	8	7	D
11/04	Bamber Bridge England Northern Premier League	–	2-0	–	–	W
06/04	Rushall Olympic England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-2	7	5	L
04/04	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	7	3	D

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Ashton Utd vs Ilkeston?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Ashton Utd win (47%). Probabilities: Ashton Utd 47%, draw 27%, Ilkeston 26%.

How many goals are expected in Ashton Utd vs Ilkeston?

The model expects 2.46 goals (Ashton Utd 1.45 · Ilkeston 1.01), with a 52% chance of under 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Ashton Utd vs Ilkeston?

The model gives a 52% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.