Football · England Northern Premier League · 25/08, 20:45

Prediction: Guiseley vs Stockton Town

Team pages: Guiseley · Stockton Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

2.78Total

Guiseley1.54

Stockton Town1.24

1X2

44% 27% 30%

Guiseley Draw Stockton Town

Markets

Over 2.5 goals 51% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1

Recent form · 10 last

Guiseley 4-3-3 (W-D-L)

WDLLDLWDWW

Stockton Town 2-3-5 (W-D-L)

LDDWLLLDLW

Head-to-head

Guiseley 1–2–3 Stockton Town (6 last)

Guiseley1-1Stockton Town
Stockton Town2-0Guiseley
Stockton Town1-0Guiseley
Guiseley1-1Stockton Town
Stockton Town3-1Guiseley
Guiseley1-0Stockton Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Guiseley 1559 · Stockton Town 1444

	Guiseley	Draw	Stockton Town
Our model	43%	27%	29%
Market	44%	26%	30%

Estimated total (ours) 2.78 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 52%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Guiseley (rating 1559 vs 1444).
H2H favours Stockton Town: 3-2-1.
High corners: 12.1 combined avg.
Cards-heavy: 7.3 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Guiseley	Stockton Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.8 / 1.7	1 / 1.6
Goals for / against (HT)	1.1 / 0.9	0.2 / 0.4
Half-time result (W/D/L)	29/71/0%	20/40/40%
Corners (HT / FT)	4.1 / 6.3	2.8 / 5.8
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.9 / 0	3.4 / 0.4

Odds Bet365

12.05

X3.40

23.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-0.25)1.85

2 (+0.25)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 2.51.93

Under 2.51.88

Diff.: 0.55 · xG: 3.05

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:18

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.05 → 2.05	Bet365 2.05
X	3.40 → 3.40	Bet365 3.40
2	3.00 → 3.00	Bet365 3.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.5%

Time*	1	X	2
14:13 +5’	2.05	3.40	3.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Guiseley 1–2–3 Stockton Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
24/01/26 England Northern Premier League	Guiseley	1-1	Stockton Town
16/09/25 England Northern Premier League	Stockton Town	2-0 HT 1-0	Guiseley
29/04/25 England Northern Premier League	Stockton Town	1-0 HT 0-0	Guiseley
21/12/24 England Northern Premier League	Guiseley	1-1	Stockton Town
14/08/24 England Northern Premier League	Stockton Town	3-1 HT 2-0	Guiseley
21/09/19 England FA Cup Qualification	Guiseley	1-0	Stockton Town

Standings · England Northern Premier League

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Cleethorpes Town	5	4	1	0	13	2	13
2	Warrington Town	5	4	1	0	13	3	13
3	Avro FC	5	4	0	1	13	6	12
4	Redcar Athletic	5	3	2	0	10	2	11
5	Ashton Utd	5	3	1	1	8	3	10
6	Guiseley	5	3	1	1	10	7	10
7	Bury	5	3	1	1	7	5	10
8	Gainsborough	5	3	0	2	10	4	9
9	Emley AFC	5	2	2	1	6	5	8
10	Hyde Utd	5	2	1	2	3	5	7
11	Alfreton Town	5	2	0	3	6	6	6
12	Warrington Rylands	5	2	0	3	4	7	6
13	Ilkeston	5	2	0	3	4	8	6
14	Whitby	5	2	0	3	4	10	6
15	Leek Town	5	1	2	2	8	7	5
16	Curzon Ashton	5	1	1	3	7	9	4
17	Stockton Town	5	1	1	3	4	7	4
18	Lancaster City	5	1	1	3	6	11	4
19	Workington	5	1	1	3	5	10	4
20	Bamber Bridge	5	1	1	3	5	14	4
21	Quorn	5	0	2	3	4	11	2
22	FC United of Manchester	5	0	1	4	2	10	1

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Guiseley	Stockton Town
Ashton Utd	1-1 D	0-1 L
FC United of Manchester	2-5 L	1-1 D
Gainsborough	1-2 L	1-4 L
Rushall Olympic	3-1 W	2-4 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 2 L	0 W 1 D 3 L

Better against common opponents: Guiseley (3 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Guiseley

WDLLDLWDWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League	2-1	2-1	4	7	W
18/08	Bury England Northern Premier League	2-2	3-2	5	4	W
15/08	Workington England Northern Premier League	–	2-2	–	–	D
11/08	Whitby England Northern Premier League	0-0	2-0	7	3	W
08/08	Warrington Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-2	–	–	L
18/04	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	1-0	1-1	4	5	D
11/04	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	–	2-5	–	–	L
06/04	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-2	9	4	L
04/04	Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League	1-1	1-1	7	3	D
28/03	Rushall Olympic England Northern Premier League	1-1	3-1	8	1	W

Stockton Town

LDDWLLLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
22/08	Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League	1-0	2-0	9	7	W
18/08	Gainsborough England Northern Premier League	–	1-4	–	–	L
15/08	Leek Town England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/08	Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	6	7	L
08/08	Ilkeston England Northern Premier League	0-0	0-1	5	1	L
28/04	Hednesford England Northern Premier League	0-1	0-2	6	3	L
25/04	Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League	–	2-1	–	–	W
21/04	FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League	0-1	1-1	3	1	D
18/04	Lancaster City England Northern Premier League	–	1-1	–	–	D
11/04	Rushall Olympic England Northern Premier League	–	2-4	–	–	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Guiseley vs Stockton Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Guiseley win (44%). Probabilities: Guiseley 44%, draw 27%, Stockton Town 30%.

How many goals are expected in Guiseley vs Stockton Town?

The model expects 2.78 goals (Guiseley 1.54 · Stockton Town 1.24), with a 51% chance of over 2.5 goals.

Will both teams score in Guiseley vs Stockton Town?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.