Football · England Northern Premier League · 18/08, 20:45
Prediction: Gainsborough vs Stockton Town
Team pages: Gainsborough · Stockton Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.27Total
Gainsborough1.28
Stockton Town1
1X2
Gainsborough
Draw
Stockton Town
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 60%
Both teams to score 51%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Gainsborough
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Stockton Town
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Gainsborough
2–1–1
Stockton Town
(4 last)
- Stockton Town1-0Gainsborough
- Gainsborough2-0Stockton Town
- Stockton Town2-3Gainsborough
- Gainsborough1-1Stockton Town
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Gainsborough 1513 · Stockton Town 1441
| Gainsborough | Draw | Stockton Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 42% | 31% | 28% |
| Market | 44% | 26% | 30% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.27 goals · Bet365 line 2.25
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 59%model estimate
Match keys
- Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Gainsborough (rating 1513 vs 1441).
- H2H favours Gainsborough: 2-1-1.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Gainsborough | Stockton Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 0.8 | 0.8 / 1.7 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.8 / 0.3 | 0.3 / 0.9 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 33/44/22% | 0/50/50% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 0.8 / 2.5 | 2.4 / 4.2 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 2 / 0.5 | 2.4 / 0.4 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Gainsborough 2–1–1 Stockton Town
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 03/04/26 England Northern Premier League | Stockton Town | 1-0 HT 1-0 | Gainsborough |
| 19/08/25 England Northern Premier League | Gainsborough | 2-0 HT 1-0 | Stockton Town |
| 25/01/25 England Northern Premier League | Stockton Town | 2-3 | Gainsborough |
| 21/09/24 England Northern Premier League | Gainsborough | 1-1 HT 1-0 | Stockton Town |
Standings · England Northern Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 |
| 2 | Warrington Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Bury | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Gainsborough | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Avro FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Alfreton Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Ashton Utd | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Whitby | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Ilkeston | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 10 | Redcar Athletic | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Guiseley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Emley AFC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Hyde Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Warrington Rylands | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Curzon Ashton | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 16 | Lancaster City | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 17 | Bamber Bridge | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
| 18 | Leek Town | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 19 | Stockton Town | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 20 | Workington | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 21 | Quorn | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| 22 | FC United of Manchester | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Gainsborough
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League |
2-0 | 3-0 | 2 | 3 | W |
| 11/08 | Alfreton Town England Northern Premier League |
0-1 | 1-2 | 2 | 7 | L |
| 08/08 | Workington England Northern Premier League |
– | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 01/08 | Bradford P A UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 28/07 | Stocksbridge PS Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/07 | Doncaster Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-0 | – | – | D |
| 21/07 | Halifax UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 2-3 | 1 | 0 | L |
| 18/07 | Basford Utd Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 14/07 | Lincoln Utd Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Frickley Club Friendly List |
2-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
Stockton Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Leek Town England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 11/08 | Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 6 | 7 | L |
| 08/08 | Ilkeston England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 1 | L |
| 25/07 | Blyth Spartans Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 14/07 | Darlington 1883 UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 1-3 | 1 | 2 | L |
| 11/07 | Dunston UTS Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 04/07 | Guisborough Town Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/04 | Hednesford England Northern Premier League |
0-1 | 0-2 | 6 | 3 | L |
| 25/04 | Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 21/04 | FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League |
0-1 | 1-1 | 3 | 1 | D |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Gainsborough vs Stockton Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Gainsborough win (43%). Probabilities: Gainsborough 43%, draw 28%, Stockton Town 29%.
How many goals are expected in Gainsborough vs Stockton Town?
The model expects 2.27 goals (Gainsborough 1.28 · Stockton Town 1), with a 51% chance of over 2.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Gainsborough vs Stockton Town?
The model gives a 51% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.