Football · England Northern Premier League · 18/08, 20:45
Prediction: Guiseley vs Bury
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.67Total
Guiseley1.27
Bury1.4
1X2
Guiseley
Draw
Bury
Markets
Under 2.5 goals 50%
Both teams to score 54%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Guiseley
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Bury
6-2-2 (W-D-L)
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Guiseley 1556 · Bury 1544
| Guiseley | Draw | Bury | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 33% | 28% | 39% |
| Market | 34% | 25% | 41% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.67 goals · Bet365 line 2.75
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsUnder 1.5 · 50%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 14.2 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 4.7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Guiseley | Bury | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.8 / 1 | 1.7 / 1.1 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.6 / 0.3 | 0.7 / 0.8 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 63/13/25% | 30/40/30% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.8 / 5.5 | 3.7 / 8.7 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 1.8 / 0 | 2.8 / 0.2 |
Standings · England Northern Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 |
| 2 | Warrington Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Bury | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Gainsborough | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Avro FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Alfreton Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Ashton Utd | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Whitby | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Ilkeston | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 10 | Redcar Athletic | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Guiseley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Emley AFC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Hyde Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Warrington Rylands | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Curzon Ashton | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 16 | Lancaster City | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 17 | Bamber Bridge | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
| 18 | Leek Town | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 19 | Stockton Town | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 20 | Workington | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 21 | Quorn | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| 22 | FC United of Manchester | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Guiseley
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Workington England Northern Premier League |
– | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 11/08 | Whitby England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 2-0 | 7 | 3 | W |
| 08/08 | Warrington Town England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 28/07 | Pontefract Collieries UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 24/07 | Blackburn U23 Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 21/07 | Garforth Town UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 17/07 | Stocksbridge PS UK Friendlies |
1-0 | 2-0 | 10 | 2 | W |
| 14/07 | Tadcaster Albion Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-0 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Harrogate Town UK Friendlies |
0-1 | 1-2 | 4 | 0 | L |
| 18/04 | Ashton Utd England Northern Premier League |
1-0 | 1-1 | 4 | 5 | D |
Bury
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Warrington Rylands England Northern Premier League |
1-0 | 1-0 | 8 | 6 | W |
| 11/08 | Curzon Ashton England Northern Premier League |
1-2 | 3-2 | 13 | 4 | W |
| 08/08 | Redcar Athletic England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 12 | 4 | D |
| 01/08 | Radcliffe FC UK Friendlies |
1-1 | 3-1 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 28/07 | Accrington Stanley UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-1 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Morecambe Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 13/07 | Elton Vale FC Club Friendly List |
1-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Chorley Club Friendly List |
0-1 | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 11/07 | Clitheroe Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 2-2 | – | – | D |
| 18/04 | Witton Albion England Northern League Division One |
2-1 | 4-1 | 10 | 4 | W |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Guiseley vs Bury?
According to our model, the most likely result is an Bury win (40%). Probabilities: Guiseley 34%, draw 26%, Bury 40%.
How many goals are expected in Guiseley vs Bury?
The model expects 2.67 goals (Guiseley 1.27 · Bury 1.4), with a 52% chance of under 2.75 goals.
Will both teams score in Guiseley vs Bury?
The model gives a 54% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.