Football · England Northern Premier League · 18/08, 20:45
Prediction: Ilkeston vs Warrington Town
Team pages: Ilkeston · Warrington Town
Prediction summary
Expected goals
2.79Total
Ilkeston1.57
Warrington Town1.22
1X2
Ilkeston
Draw
Warrington Town
Markets
Over 2.5 goals 52%
Both teams to score 55%
Most likely score
1-1
Recent form · 10 last
Ilkeston
5-2-3 (W-D-L)
Warrington Town
3-2-5 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Ilkeston
0–1–3
Warrington Town
(4 last)
- Ilkeston1-1Warrington Town
- Warrington Town1-0Ilkeston
- Ilkeston0-2Warrington Town
- Warrington Town4-1Ilkeston
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Ilkeston 1516 · Warrington Town 1484
| Ilkeston | Draw | Warrington Town | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 44% | 27% | 28% |
| Market | 45% | 26% | 29% |
Estimated total (ours)
2.79 goals · Bet365 line 2.5 · +0.3
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 58%model estimate
Match keys
- H2H favours Warrington Town: 3-1-0.
- High corners: 10.6 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Ilkeston | Warrington Town | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 1.4 | 1.5 / 1.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 0.9 / 0.6 | 0.6 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 38/38/25% | 29/29/43% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5 | 2.2 / 5.6 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3 / 0.4 | 0 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Ilkeston 0–1–3 Warrington Town
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 04/04/26 England Northern Premier League | Ilkeston | 1-1 HT 0-1 | Warrington Town |
| 19/08/25 England Northern Premier League | Warrington Town | 1-0 HT 0-0 | Ilkeston |
| 04/03/17 England Northern Premier League | Ilkeston | 0-2 | Warrington Town |
| 10/09/16 England Northern League Challenge Cup | Warrington Town | 4-1 | Ilkeston |
Standings · England Northern Premier League
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Cleethorpes Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 8 | 1 | 7 |
| 2 | Warrington Town | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 6 | 2 | 7 |
| 3 | Bury | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | 4 | 2 | 7 |
| 4 | Gainsborough | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 6 | 2 | 6 |
| 5 | Avro FC | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 8 | 5 | 6 |
| 6 | Alfreton Town | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 6 | Ashton Utd | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 5 | 2 | 6 |
| 8 | Whitby | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 6 |
| 9 | Ilkeston | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 6 |
| 10 | Redcar Athletic | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 5 |
| 11 | Guiseley | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 4 | 4 |
| 12 | Emley AFC | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3 | 4 |
| 13 | Hyde Utd | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 4 |
| 14 | Warrington Rylands | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 2 | 3 |
| 15 | Curzon Ashton | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 4 | 5 | 3 |
| 16 | Lancaster City | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 3 | 6 | 3 |
| 17 | Bamber Bridge | 3 | 1 | 0 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 3 |
| 18 | Leek Town | 3 | 0 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 4 | 2 |
| 19 | Stockton Town | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 20 | Workington | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 5 | 1 |
| 21 | Quorn | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 8 | 1 |
| 22 | FC United of Manchester | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 7 | 1 |
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Ilkeston
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Whitby England Northern Premier League |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
| 11/08 | Emley AFC England Northern Premier League |
2-0 | 2-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 08/08 | Stockton Town England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 1-0 | 4 | 1 | W |
| 28/07 | Basford Utd UK Friendlies |
2-1 | 4-1 | 3 | 2 | W |
| 18/07 | Barwell Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-1 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Worksop Club Friendly List |
0-2 | 1-3 | – | – | L |
| 03/07 | Belper United FC Club Friendly List |
3-1 | 4-2 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | FC United of Manchester England Northern Premier League |
– | 3-2 | – | – | W |
| 21/04 | Glossop North End England County Cup |
0-1 | 2-2 | 7 | 5 | D |
| 18/04 | Stocksbridge PS England Northern Premier League |
0-0 | 0-0 | 8 | 7 | D |
Warrington Town
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15/08 | Cleethorpes Town England Northern Premier League |
– | 1-1 | – | – | D |
| 11/08 | Hyde Utd England Northern Premier League |
1-0 | 3-0 | 4 | 0 | W |
| 08/08 | Guiseley England Northern Premier League |
– | 2-1 | – | – | W |
| 28/07 | Marine UK Friendlies |
0-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 0 | L |
| 25/07 | Southport UK Friendlies |
1-3 | 2-3 | 6 | 0 | L |
| 21/07 | Macclesfield UK Friendlies |
1-2 | 2-2 | 4 | 0 | D |
| 18/07 | Chester UK Friendlies |
0-0 | 0-2 | 9 | 0 | L |
| 14/07 | Atherton Collieries Club Friendly List |
0-0 | 0-3 | – | – | L |
| 11/07 | Widnes Town Club Friendly List |
1-0 | 4-0 | – | – | W |
| 25/04 | Morpeth Town England Northern Premier League |
– | 0-2 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Ilkeston vs Warrington Town?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Ilkeston win (45%). Probabilities: Ilkeston 45%, draw 27%, Warrington Town 29%.
How many goals are expected in Ilkeston vs Warrington Town?
The model expects 2.79 goals (Ilkeston 1.57 · Warrington Town 1.22), with a 52% chance of over 2.5 goals.
Will both teams score in Ilkeston vs Warrington Town?
The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.