Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 10/11, 20:45

Prediction: Bury Town vs Bishop's Stortford

Team pages: Bury Town · Bishop's Stortford

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.18Total

Bury Town2.1

Bishop's Stortford1.08

1X2

60% 22% 18%

Bury Town Draw Bishop's Stortford

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 61% Both teams to score 55%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Bury Town 5-2-3 (W-D-L)

WWWLWDLDLW

Bishop's Stortford 3-0-7 (W-D-L)

WWLLLLWLLL

Head-to-head

Bury Town 2–1–0 Bishop's Stortford (3 last)

Bishop's Stortford1-2Bury Town
Bury Town2-0Bishop's Stortford
Bishop's Stortford0-0Bury Town

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Bury Town 1509 · Bishop's Stortford 1426

	Bury Town	Draw	Bishop's Stortford
Our model	60%	22%	18%
Market	60%	22%	18%

Estimated total (ours) 3.18 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.2

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 70%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Bury Town (rating 1509 vs 1426).
H2H favours Bury Town: 2-1-0.
Cards-heavy: 5.5 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Bury Town	Bishop's Stortford
Goals for / against (FT)	1.6 / 1.9	1.5 / 1.9
Goals for / against (HT)	1 / 1.4	0 / 1.5
Half-time result (W/D/L)	20/60/20%	0/0/100%
Corners (HT / FT)	1.6 / 3.4	1.5 / 3.5
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	4 / 0.4	1.5 / 0

Odds Bet365

11.50

X4.20

25.00

Handicap ⓘ

1 (-1)1.80

2 (+1)2.00

Line ⓘ

Over 31.82

Under 31.98

Diff.: 0.45 · xG: 3.45

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 12:57

	Bet365	Best now
1	1.50 → 1.50	Bet365 1.50
X	4.20 → 4.20	Bet365 4.20
2	5.00 → 5.00	Bet365 5.00

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 10.5%

Time*	1	X	2
12:46 +11’	1.50	4.20	5.00

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Bury Town 2–1–0 Bishop's Stortford

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Date	Home	Score	Away
29/09/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Bishop's Stortford	1-2 HT 0-1	Bury Town
07/03/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Bury Town	2-0	Bishop's Stortford
22/11/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Bishop's Stortford	0-0	Bury Town

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	17	12	2	3	43	22	38
2	Bury Town	17	11	2	4	31	26	35
3	Bromsgrove	15	10	4	1	31	16	34
4	Kettering	16	9	4	3	31	18	31
5	Needham Market	16	8	4	4	36	24	28
6	Peterborough Sports	16	7	6	3	32	26	27
7	Rushall Olympic	17	9	0	8	32	28	27
8	Alvechurch	14	7	5	2	27	13	26
9	Anstey Nomads	15	7	5	3	32	24	26
10	Halesowen	14	7	2	5	23	23	23
11	Stourbridge	15	6	4	5	20	21	22
12	Racing Club Warwick	16	5	5	6	23	22	20
13	Stratford Town	16	4	7	5	22	27	19
14	Redditch	14	4	6	4	23	22	18
15	Hitchin	16	4	4	8	20	24	16
16	Leiston	14	4	3	7	25	29	15
17	Banbury	16	3	5	8	18	29	14
18	Worcester City	13	3	4	6	15	17	13
19	Leamington	16	3	4	9	22	30	13
20	Bishop's Stortford	16	4	1	11	18	29	13
21	Leighton Town	15	1	3	11	16	35	6
22	Stamford	16	1	2	13	5	40	5

Common opponents 3 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Bury Town	Bishop's Stortford
Racing Club Warwick	3-1 W	2-4 L
Real Bedford	2-2 D	3-1 W
Needham Market	0-5 L	1-2 L
Record vs common	1 W 1 D 1 L	1 W 0 D 2 L

Better against common opponents: Bishop's Stortford (2 of 3 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Bury Town

WWWLWDLDLW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	3-1	1	6	W
03/11	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	2-2	2-3	7	6	L
31/10	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-2	–	–	D
24/10	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-5	–	–	L
20/10	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-2	2	5	D
17/10	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-0	–	–	W
13/10	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	0-3	0-5	3	2	L
10/10	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
29/09	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-1	4	3	W
22/09	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W

Bishop's Stortford

WWLLLLWLLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
31/10	Anstey Nomads England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-4	–	–	L
27/10	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	0-1	–	–	L
24/10	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-1	–	–	W
20/10	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	0-2	1-2	6	0	L
17/10	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-4	–	–	L
10/10	Redditch England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-3	–	–	L
29/09	Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	1-2	1	3	L
19/09	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-0	–	–	W
12/09	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-1	–	–	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Bury Town vs Bishop's Stortford?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Bury Town win (60%). Probabilities: Bury Town 60%, draw 22%, Bishop's Stortford 18%.

How many goals are expected in Bury Town vs Bishop's Stortford?

The model expects 3.18 goals (Bury Town 2.1 · Bishop's Stortford 1.08), with a 51% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Bury Town vs Bishop's Stortford?

The model gives a 55% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.