Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 17/11, 20:45

Prediction: Leiston vs Stratford Town

Team pages: Leiston · Stratford Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.26Total

Leiston1.65

Stratford Town1.61

1X2

38% 25% 37%

Leiston Draw Stratford Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 59% Both teams to score 58%

Most likely score

1-1 11%

Recent form · 10 last

Leiston 2-2-6 (W-D-L)

WLLDLWLLLD

Stratford Town 5-5-0 (W-D-L)

WWDDDDWWWD

Head-to-head

Leiston 3–1–2 Stratford Town (6 last)

Leiston1-1Stratford Town
Stratford Town2-1Leiston
Leiston1-0Stratford Town
Stratford Town3-0Leiston
Leiston2-0Stratford Town
Stratford Town3-4Leiston

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leiston 1442 · Stratford Town 1564

	Leiston	Draw	Stratford Town
Our model	38%	25%	37%
Market	38%	25%	37%

Estimated total (ours) 3.26 goals · Bet365 line 3 · +0.3

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 60%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stratford Town (rating 1442 vs 1564).
H2H favours Leiston: 3-1-2.
Cards-heavy: 5.9 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leiston	Stratford Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1.5 / 2.4	2 / 1.4
Goals for / against (HT)	0.4 / 1.1	0.8 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	0/38/63%	20/80/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2.3 / 6	2.4 / 4.4
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.1 / 0	2.8 / 0.2

Odds Bet365

12.35

X3.60

22.45

Handicap ⓘ

1 (0)1.85

2 (0)1.95

Line ⓘ

Over 31.80

Under 32.00

Diff.: 0.65 · xG: 3.65

Market movement

Match winner · 2 moves · last 15:54

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.10 → 2.35▲	Bet365 2.35
X	3.70 → 3.60▼	Bet365 3.60
2	2.75 → 2.45▼	Bet365 2.45

See the full journey (2)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:18 +10’	2.10	3.70	2.75
15:41 +12’	2.35▲	3.60▼	2.45▼

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Head-to-head (H2H) · Leiston 3–1–2 Stratford Town

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Date	Home	Score	Away
07/03/26 England Southern Premier League Central	Leiston	1-1	Stratford Town
22/11/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Stratford Town	2-1	Leiston
04/01/25 England Southern Premier League Central	Leiston	1-0 HT 1-0	Stratford Town
10/08/24 England Southern Premier League Central	Stratford Town	3-0	Leiston
23/12/23 England Southern Premier League Central	Leiston	2-0	Stratford Town
26/08/23 England Southern Premier League Central	Stratford Town	3-4	Leiston

Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	18	13	2	3	47	23	41
2	Bromsgrove	16	11	4	1	34	18	37
3	Bury Town	19	11	4	4	33	28	37
4	Needham Market	17	9	4	4	38	24	31
5	Kettering	17	9	4	4	31	19	31
6	Peterborough Sports	17	8	6	3	33	26	30
7	Alvechurch	15	8	5	2	29	14	29
8	Anstey Nomads	16	8	5	3	33	24	29
9	Rushall Olympic	19	9	2	8	34	30	29
10	Halesowen	15	7	3	5	24	24	24
11	Stratford Town	18	5	8	5	26	30	23
12	Stourbridge	16	6	4	6	21	23	22
13	Racing Club Warwick	17	5	5	7	24	24	20
14	Redditch	15	4	6	5	23	23	18
15	Worcester City	14	4	4	6	17	18	16
16	Hitchin	16	4	4	8	20	24	16
17	Leiston	16	4	4	8	28	35	16
18	Leamington	18	3	5	10	26	35	14
19	Bishop's Stortford	17	4	2	11	19	30	14
20	Banbury	18	3	5	10	19	33	14
21	Leighton Town	16	1	4	11	18	37	7
22	Stamford	16	1	2	13	5	40	5

Common opponents 5 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leiston	Stratford Town
Leamington	2-2 D	2-1 W
Bromsgrove	2-3 L	2-2 D
Alvechurch	1-3 L	4-4 D
Peterborough Sports	5-2 W	1-1 D
Banbury	2-1 W	2-1 W
Record vs common	2 W 1 D 2 L	2 W 3 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Stratford Town (3 of 5 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leiston

WLLDLWLLLD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	2-2	5	2	D
10/11	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	1-4	1	4	L
07/11	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-3	–	–	L
31/10	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	1-2	1-3	7	3	L
27/10	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	–	5-2	–	–	W
20/10	Kettering England Southern Premier League Central	0-2	0-4	7	2	L
10/10	Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-0	6	5	D
29/09	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	2-3	5	5	L
22/09	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-2	10	0	L
12/09	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	2-1	7	4	W

Stratford Town

WWDDDDWWWD

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
14/11	Leighton Town England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	2-2	5	6	D
10/11	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
07/11	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
31/10	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-1	–	–	W
27/10	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-2	–	–	D
24/10	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	2-2	4-4	4	3	D
17/10	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
13/10	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
10/10	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/09	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	3-2	3	2	W

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leiston vs Stratford Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is a Leiston win (38%). Probabilities: Leiston 38%, draw 25%, Stratford Town 37%.

How many goals are expected in Leiston vs Stratford Town?

The model expects 3.26 goals (Leiston 1.65 · Stratford Town 1.61), with a 53% chance of over 3 goals.

Will both teams score in Leiston vs Stratford Town?

The model gives a 58% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.