Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 14/11, 16:00

Prediction: Leighton Town vs Stratford Town

Team pages: Leighton Town · Stratford Town

Prediction summary

Expected goals

3.45Total

Leighton Town1.59

Stratford Town1.85

1X2

32% 25% 43%

Leighton Town Draw Stratford Town

Markets

Under 3.5 goals 55% Both teams to score 59%

Most likely score

1-1 10%

Recent form · 10 last

Leighton Town 0-1-9 (W-D-L)

LLLLLLLDLL

Stratford Town 5-4-1 (W-D-L)

LWWDDDDWWW

Our model (Elo) vs Market Rating Elo · Leighton Town 1381 · Stratford Town 1537

	Leighton Town	Draw	Stratford Town
Our model	33%	24%	43%
Market	32%	25%	43%

Estimated total (ours) 3.45 goals · Bet365 line 2.75 · +0.7

The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.

Model analysis

1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 64%model estimate

Match keys

Our model (Elo, opponent-adjusted) favours Stratford Town (rating 1381 vs 1537).
Cards-heavy: 5.6 🟨 combined avg.

Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed

F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time

	Leighton Town	Stratford Town
Goals for / against (FT)	1 / 2.7	2 / 1.5
Goals for / against (HT)	0.2 / 1.7	0.6 / 0.6
Half-time result (W/D/L)	17/0/83%	0/100/0%
Corners (HT / FT)	2 / 4.5	2 / 4.2
Cards (🟨 / 🟥)	3.2 / 0.3	2.4 / 0

Odds Bet365

12.80

X3.60

22.10

Handicap ⓘ

1 (+0.25)1.90

2 (-0.25)1.90

Line ⓘ

Over 2.751.77

Under 2.752.02

Diff.: 0.85 · xG: 3.6

Market movement

Match winner · 1 move · last 14:07

	Bet365	Best now
1	2.80 → 2.80	Bet365 2.80
X	3.60 → 3.60	Bet365 3.60
2	2.10 → 2.10	Bet365 2.10

See the full journey (1)

Bet365 margin 11.1%

Time*	1	X	2
13:43 +25’	2.80	3.60	2.10

Time = when the bookmaker moved the price · “+N’” = we saw it N minutes later · ▲ pays more · ▼ pays less.

We record the changes we see on each pass of our system (this is not a live feed): between two rows there may be moves that don't show up. We deliberately keep two separate times: when the bookmaker moved the price and when we saw it.

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Standings · England Southern Premier League Central

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#	Team	P	W	D	L	GF	GA	Pts
1	Real Bedford	18	13	2	3	47	23	41
2	Bromsgrove	16	11	4	1	34	18	37
3	Bury Town	18	11	3	4	32	27	36
4	Kettering	17	9	4	4	31	19	31
5	Peterborough Sports	17	8	6	3	33	26	30
6	Alvechurch	15	8	5	2	29	14	29
7	Anstey Nomads	16	8	5	3	33	24	29
8	Needham Market	16	8	4	4	36	24	28
9	Rushall Olympic	18	9	1	8	33	29	28
10	Halesowen	15	7	3	5	24	24	24
11	Stourbridge	16	6	4	6	21	23	22
12	Stratford Town	17	5	7	5	24	28	22
13	Racing Club Warwick	17	5	5	7	24	24	20
14	Redditch	15	4	6	5	23	23	18
15	Worcester City	14	4	4	6	17	18	16
16	Hitchin	16	4	4	8	20	24	16
17	Leiston	15	4	3	8	26	33	15
18	Bishop's Stortford	17	4	2	11	19	30	14
19	Banbury	17	3	5	9	19	31	14
20	Leamington	17	3	4	10	24	33	13
21	Leighton Town	15	1	3	11	16	35	6
22	Stamford	16	1	2	13	5	40	5

Common opponents 4 opponents

How each team fared against the same recent opponents

Opponent	Leighton Town	Stratford Town
Hitchin	1-3 L	3-1 W
Bromsgrove	1-5 L	2-2 D
Banbury	0-1 L	2-1 W
Peterborough Sports	2-4 L	1-1 D
Record vs common	0 W 0 D 4 L	2 W 2 D 0 L

Better against common opponents: Stratford Town (4 of 4 head-to-heads won)

Last 10 matches played

The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.

Leighton Town

LLLLLLLDLL

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
07/11	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-3	–	–	L
31/10	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-5	–	–	L
27/10	Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central	1-0	1-1	3	2	D
20/10	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	3	7	L
17/10	Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central	0-3	0-3	4	3	L
10/10	Stourbridge England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-2	–	–	L
03/10	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	0-2	2-4	4	4	L
29/09	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	0-1	0-1	9	0	L
12/09	Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-4	–	–	L
31/08	Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central	0-3	2-3	4	5	L

Stratford Town

LWWDDDDWWW

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Date	Opponent	HT	FT	Cor.	Cards	Res.
10/11	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	2-1	2	3	W
07/11	Bishop's Stortford England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-0	–	–	W
31/10	Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central	–	3-1	–	–	W
27/10	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-2	–	–	D
24/10	Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central	2-2	4-4	4	3	D
17/10	Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central	–	1-1	–	–	D
13/10	Stamford England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	0-0	8	1	D
10/10	Leamington England Southern Premier League Central	–	2-1	–	–	W
29/09	Banbury England Southern Premier League Central	1-1	3-2	3	2	W
22/09	Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central	0-0	2-3	4	3	L

Frequently asked questions

Who is the favourite in Leighton Town vs Stratford Town?

According to our model, the most likely result is an Stratford Town win (43%). Probabilities: Leighton Town 32%, draw 25%, Stratford Town 43%.

How many goals are expected in Leighton Town vs Stratford Town?

The model expects 3.45 goals (Leighton Town 1.59 · Stratford Town 1.85), with a 57% chance of over 2.75 goals.

Will both teams score in Leighton Town vs Stratford Town?

The model gives a 59% chance that both teams score.

What is the most likely score?

The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.