Football · England Southern Premier League Central · 14/11, 16:00
Prediction: Leamington vs Leiston
Team pages: Leamington · Leiston
Prediction summary
Expected goals
3.7Total
Leamington1.97
Leiston1.73
1X2
Leamington
Draw
Leiston
Markets
Over 3.5 goals 51%
Both teams to score 60%
Most likely score
1-1 9%
Recent form · 10 last
Leamington
2-2-6 (W-D-L)
Leiston
2-1-7 (W-D-L)
Head-to-head
Leamington
0–2–0
Leiston
(2 last)
- Leiston1-1Leamington
- Leamington1-1Leiston
Our model (Elo) vs Market
Rating Elo · Leamington 1455 · Leiston 1431
| Leamington | Draw | Leiston | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Our model | 43% | 23% | 34% |
| Market | 43% | 24% | 33% |
Estimated total (ours)
3.7 goals · Bet365 line 3.25 · +0.5
The bar above blends our model with the market: where our probability diverges most from the odds is where the model sees the widest gap.
Model analysis
1st-half goalsOver 1.5 · 72%model estimate
Match keys
- High corners: 12 combined avg.
- Cards-heavy: 7 🟨 combined avg.
Statistics · 10/10 matches analysed
F = for · A = against · HT = half-time · FT = full-time
| Leamington | Leiston | |
|---|---|---|
| Goals for / against (FT) | 1.7 / 2 | 1.6 / 2.6 |
| Goals for / against (HT) | 1.1 / 1.1 | 0.3 / 1 |
| Half-time result (W/D/L) | 43/14/43% | 0/43/57% |
| Corners (HT / FT) | 2.3 / 5.9 | 2.4 / 6.1 |
| Cards (🟨 / 🟥) | 3.7 / 0.3 | 3.3 / 0 |
Head-to-head (H2H) · Leamington 0–2–0 Leiston
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| Date | Home | Score | Away |
|---|---|---|---|
| 20/04/24 England Southern Premier League Central | Leiston | 1-1 | Leamington |
| 11/11/23 England Southern Premier League Central | Leamington | 1-1 HT 1-1 | Leiston |
Standings · England Southern Premier League Central
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| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GF | GA | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Real Bedford | 18 | 13 | 2 | 3 | 47 | 23 | 41 |
| 2 | Bromsgrove | 16 | 11 | 4 | 1 | 34 | 18 | 37 |
| 3 | Bury Town | 18 | 11 | 3 | 4 | 32 | 27 | 36 |
| 4 | Kettering | 17 | 9 | 4 | 4 | 31 | 19 | 31 |
| 5 | Peterborough Sports | 17 | 8 | 6 | 3 | 33 | 26 | 30 |
| 6 | Alvechurch | 15 | 8 | 5 | 2 | 29 | 14 | 29 |
| 7 | Anstey Nomads | 16 | 8 | 5 | 3 | 33 | 24 | 29 |
| 8 | Needham Market | 16 | 8 | 4 | 4 | 36 | 24 | 28 |
| 9 | Rushall Olympic | 18 | 9 | 1 | 8 | 33 | 29 | 28 |
| 10 | Halesowen | 15 | 7 | 3 | 5 | 24 | 24 | 24 |
| 11 | Stourbridge | 16 | 6 | 4 | 6 | 21 | 23 | 22 |
| 12 | Stratford Town | 17 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 24 | 28 | 22 |
| 13 | Racing Club Warwick | 17 | 5 | 5 | 7 | 24 | 24 | 20 |
| 14 | Redditch | 15 | 4 | 6 | 5 | 23 | 23 | 18 |
| 15 | Worcester City | 14 | 4 | 4 | 6 | 17 | 18 | 16 |
| 16 | Hitchin | 16 | 4 | 4 | 8 | 20 | 24 | 16 |
| 17 | Leiston | 15 | 4 | 3 | 8 | 26 | 33 | 15 |
| 18 | Bishop's Stortford | 17 | 4 | 2 | 11 | 19 | 30 | 14 |
| 19 | Banbury | 17 | 3 | 5 | 9 | 19 | 31 | 14 |
| 20 | Leamington | 17 | 3 | 4 | 10 | 24 | 33 | 13 |
| 21 | Leighton Town | 15 | 1 | 3 | 11 | 16 | 35 | 6 |
| 22 | Stamford | 16 | 1 | 2 | 13 | 5 | 40 | 5 |
Common opponents 3 opponents
How each team fared against the same recent opponents
| Opponent | Leamington | Leiston |
|---|---|---|
| Bromsgrove | 2-3 L | 2-3 L |
| Banbury | 1-0 W | 2-1 W |
| Peterborough Sports | 2-4 L | 5-2 W |
| Record vs common | 1 W 0 D 2 L | 2 W 0 D 1 L |
Better against common opponents: Leiston (1 of 3 head-to-heads won)
Last 10 matches played
The averages above come from these matches. W = win, D = draw, L = loss. Common opponents to both are in blue.
Leamington
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central |
2-0 | 2-3 | 3 | 3 | L |
| 07/11 | Banbury England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-0 | – | – | W |
| 31/10 | Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 2-4 | – | – | L |
| 27/10 | Halesowen England Southern Premier League Central |
2-1 | 2-3 | 3 | 4 | L |
| 20/10 | Rushall Olympic England Southern Premier League Central |
1-2 | 1-3 | 11 | 6 | L |
| 17/10 | Needham Market England Southern Premier League Central |
1-2 | 1-2 | 5 | 6 | L |
| 13/10 | Redditch England Southern Premier League Central |
0-2 | 2-2 | 10 | 6 | D |
| 10/10 | Stratford Town England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 1-2 | – | – | L |
| 03/10 | Hitchin England Southern Premier League Central |
1-0 | 4-0 | 3 | 0 | W |
| 29/09 | Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central |
1-1 | 1-1 | 6 | 3 | D |
Leiston
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| Date | Opponent | HT | FT | Cor. | Cards | Res. |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10/11 | Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central |
0-1 | 1-4 | 1 | 4 | L |
| 07/11 | Bromsgrove England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 2-3 | – | – | L |
| 31/10 | Alvechurch England Southern Premier League Central |
1-2 | 1-3 | 7 | 3 | L |
| 27/10 | Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 5-2 | – | – | W |
| 20/10 | Kettering England Southern Premier League Central |
0-2 | 0-4 | 7 | 2 | L |
| 10/10 | Racing Club Warwick England Southern Premier League Central |
0-0 | 0-0 | 6 | 5 | D |
| 29/09 | Real Bedford England Southern Premier League Central |
0-0 | 2-3 | 5 | 5 | L |
| 22/09 | Peterborough Sports England Southern Premier League Central |
0-1 | 0-2 | 10 | 0 | L |
| 12/09 | Banbury England Southern Premier League Central |
1-1 | 2-1 | 7 | 4 | W |
| 31/08 | Bury Town England Southern Premier League Central |
– | 3-4 | – | – | L |
Frequently asked questions
Who is the favourite in Leamington vs Leiston?
According to our model, the most likely result is a Leamington win (43%). Probabilities: Leamington 43%, draw 23%, Leiston 34%.
How many goals are expected in Leamington vs Leiston?
The model expects 3.7 goals (Leamington 1.97 · Leiston 1.73), with a 54% chance of over 3.25 goals.
Will both teams score in Leamington vs Leiston?
The model gives a 60% chance that both teams score.
What is the most likely score?
The most likely score according to our model is 1-1.